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Strategies & Market Trends : Stochastics

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To: Dale Baker who wrote (332)	3/11/1998 9:27:00 AM
From: Wayners	Read Replies (3) of 927

Analysis at close on 3/10/98. Updated AMAT through CYBR. NASDAQ The trend has gone neutral. Not a good sign. NASDAQ is rallying now and using bollinger bands--because of the neutral trend, I'm pretty sure its going to have a lot of trouble going above 1775 to 1790. The upper band is actually at 1788. AMAT Ready to bounce and create another really nice short opportunity for those that missed the first ride. Volatility is high and is peaking--not fully peaked yet though. I think this is a short term bottom. Stochastics hooking to the upside. Probably a short again at $35. AMD Trend going neutral. Volatility is decreasing. Still in an uptrend but the volatility has peaked. Stochastics hooking upward from below 20--however limited upside price potential because of the decreasing volatility. Only good for a dollar or two. AMZN Still on an uptrend. Good high and steady volatility. Just ride the trend. AOL Still on an uptrend--likely to break to the upside again. Low volatility set to increase. High stochastics but not hooking downward. With the positive trend, I can stomach high stochastic levels until I see it hook downward substantially. ARX Slight uptrend and stochastics headed solidly in the up direction. Good quick buy for 3 to 5 days. ASA Basing out on low volatility. Downtrend going neutral. Really good support at $20. Buy/accumulate now or as close to $20 as possible. Volatility is bottomed. Time to buy call options a with expiration a few months out. ASND Stochastics increasing for another short opportunity. Trend is down. Looking for the hook downward to short this one. I don't think this is going to make it up past $35. AVM Slight uptrend and low volatility. Volume and volatility way too low to be messing with this stuff. AVNT I just shorted this one myself. Long term downtrend, neutral to slightly down short term trend. Shorted at the upper bollinger band. Volatility is still decent. Looking to cover at $13 to $14. BBIOY Broke to the downside. Volatility not peaked and Stochastics below 20 and not hooking upward. Room left in this downtrend. Short the trend down. BMY Good uptrend in place. Volatility still increasing. Good quick buy. CADE Volume is very low on this thing which inhibitis the predictability. Neutral trend. About to be 3 days at the upper bollinger band. I wouldn't play it one way or the other here. CBIZ Volatility is as low as its going to get. Stochastics hooking to the dowside. Real good short opportunity here. Definitely a dowside break bias. CDRD Wait for next peak in stochastics to short the downtrend. CEXP Slight uptrend. Too boring volatility wise. Move onto something else CFON Volatility too low to play. Can't short below $5 either. Move on. CIEN Failed to do a countertrend rally. Get out of long positions. Volatility is at a bottom. Buy puts calls or both in anticipation of breakout direction. Dead money until it breaks out up or down. CKFR Short the next hook downward in 5 day stochastics provided the volatility is high enough. Volatility is fine right now. CLST Good solid uptrend. Volatility is low but will break upwards again. COMS Slight uptrend to buy into. Low stochastics right now. Sell when it gets to the upper bollinger band. CORR Breaking upwards on the trend. Good quick buy. CORX $1.66 stock. Buy here and sell at the upper band at $1.90. Stochastics hooking upward. Just play the bands. CPQ Volatility is very high. Look for a countertrend rally to the upside. Trend is solidly down. Next rally will be a suckers rally to short into. Look for a peak in 5 day stochastics. CTXS Great short just below $45. Nice downtrend. I think its a good short. CYBR The trend is up for longs. Good quick buy. 5 day stochastics headed up further. CYMI Neutral trend. Was a sell at the upper bollinger band. Volatility didn't make it past the middle band. 5 day stochastics hooked downwards. Looks like a quick short to just under $20. CYPB Ready to break out. Volatility set to increase. 5 day stochastics curving back down again. Really looking for a break to play--as that will increse the volatility from these really low levels. Bias now for a downward break based on stochastics. Easily whipsawed with narrow bollinger bands. DELL Volatility is peaked. Time to take profits or wirte covered calls. Profit taking is occuring here. Trend still strongly up. 5 day stochastics showing more downside--not meaning much in a real strong uptrend. Price is going to consolidate and volatility is decreasing. DSYS Volatility is really high after the spike down, but its still not peaked. When it peaks write puts or buy long for a countertrend rally. 5 day stochastics below 20 but no showing any hooking action to the upside yet. DWRX I hope everybody got out of DWRX before yesterday. Trend is now neutral. If you didn't get out and as long as the neutral trend holds up, sell at the next peak in 5 day stochastics. Negative divergence between price and peaks on 5 day stochastics should have alerted everybody to the trend slowing down. Volatility can increase from here. EFII Trend on price is slightly up. Trend on 5 day stochastics holding this thing down. 5 day stochastics quickly got tired and hooking down. Write calls or take profits on long positions. FONR On a downtrend. Volatility is decreasing from a peak. Could write puts--if this wasn't a $2.00 stock. Too low volume to be messing around with. I think this just going to base out around $2.50. GERN Volatility is too low to be trading this thing. 5 day stochastic crossed below the 20 level and showing a small upward hook. Neutral trend and narrow bollinger bands make it a riskier play. Best way to play is to short at $13 1/2 and cover at $12 repeatedly. HD In a nice uptrend with price sitting on the lower band. 5 day stochastics under 20. I think this is a VERY safe buy right here. HRSH Volatility is peaked so can write puts. Volatility is high enough here to try to buy into a countertrend rally. The trend is solidly down. Shorting a peak after a runup should be very profitable as well. 5 day stochastics hooking to the upside. IDTC Not much of a trend left. Pretty neutral. Can try quick shorts agains the upper bollinger band. IHS Volatility is very low. Neutral trend after a really strong runup. Very narrow bollinger bands. 5 day stochastics turning direction back down. Very difficult to predict breakout direction. Current bias to the downside based solely on stochastics. IIT Low volatility and on a slight downtrend. Current bias for an upward break using 5 day stochastics--curently hooked to the upside. IOM Very low volatility. Slight downtrend to neutral trend. 5 day stochastics very high giving it a downward break bias. Low predictability with the narrow bands/low volatility. Price is also at its upper band giving it a downward bias. IRIDF Volatility is peaking on bollinger bands on bollinger band width. Time to take profits today or tomorrow or write covered calls. 5 day stochastics hooking downward. JLG 5 day stochastics are hooking downward. The trend is slightly up. The question is whether this is shortable here. Volatility is fairly low and doesn't appear to be increasing. This will limit gains on either the long or short side. I think its only a quck short where you try to pick up about fifty cents and then get out. Cover at the lower band on price. KLIC Volatility is increasing to the downside after having really narrow bollinger bands. 5 day stochastics are still pointed downward and the moving average on 5 day stochastics is down. I think its a good short until the 5 day stochastics show really good strength. I think its just starting to slip into a downtrend. LCCI Uptrend is intact. Volatility is increasing to the upside. Good quick buy. 5 day stochastics moving upwared again. LSI Volatility is low but increasing a bit. On a downtrend for shorting. Moving average on 5 day stochastics is down. 12 day moving average is down. 5 day stochastics hooked downward again because of the downtrend. Let bollinger bands on bollinger band width tell you the bottom. Wait for the volatility to peak, then cover. LTBG 5 day stochastics are at its upper band. Strong Downtrend with stochastics pointed down. Looks like a good quick short--but low volatility will limit gains. LTXX Short to $4.75 or maybe a little lower. Volatility is peaked. Neutral trend. Long term downtrend still in place. MEDA Narrow bands/low volatility. Not much predictability here. I'll give it a downward break bias now. 5 day stochastics hooking downward. MIND Nice short play setting up. 5 day stochastics have peaked and hooked downward. Neutral or slight downtrend has developed. Price at the upper band too. Volatility is steady. Cover at $15.50 or lower. MPDI Uptrend of little duration in play. Upward volatility is peaked. Take profits or write calls. Will probably drop to $6 or lower. MSFT Strong uptrend. Volatility is showing signs that it can go a little bit higher. Volatility not likely to increase much further short term. Might want to write covered calls soon for the next runup. 5 day stochastics hooking downward now. A bit too early to take profits. MUEI Volatility due to increase. Trend is neutral to slightly down now. Showing a strong downward hook now. Downwared break bias. NORT downtrend and can't short it ($1.50 stock). Stochastics are less than the 12 day moving average which is bearish. NSCP Slight downtrend. Still looking for a short opportunity with a stochastics peak. Volatility is decreasing again. 5 day stochastics hooking upward. Very little profit potential for trading. ORCL Volatility due to increase--but its not happening yet. It is not looking good here. 5 day stochatics are peaked at the upper band. The trend is slightly down. I'd expect a downward break at this point. I'd short it here--or wait for the actual break down to avoid having dead money waiting for the break. OXHP Slight downtrend now. Nice upward hook on stochastics. Volatility is low but has been increasing a bit to the downside. 5 day stochastics are oversold--no upward hook showing. Short on any stochastic peak. PNDA Neutral to slight downtrend. Can't decide if it will break upwards or consolidate more. Volatility is currently very low--but due to increase. A big upmove here would not surprise me. Bias for an upward breakout. PRMS--Volatility still increasing. Broke downwards. Slight downtrend and and narrow bollinger bands. I'd strongly consider shorting it still--but this time wait for a small peak on the downtrend. Volatility is increasing to the dowside. Real good short play to jump on. QCOM Slight uptrend. Volatility is low but increasing. 5 day stochastics near a peak but not showing any deterioration downward. Strong resistance on the upside at $55. Play long until $55 then take profits. QWST Volatility is peaked now. Downtrend--short next stochastics peak. Dead money for awhile. No play until there is some price action. RIG Volatility is real low but showing a small increase. Neutral trend and too unpredictable to play. Bias for an upward break eventually. Good play for the real patient investor waiting for an upward break to occur. Can play with a buy stop to keep from having dead money. RMBS Volatility is currently very low making this a poor trader. The trend is neutral to slightly down. Band are narrow. 5 day stochastics right in the middle. Slight downward bias. Overall I think this is a no play or a short with a tight stop. SCTC Volatility ready to start increasing REAL soon. Narrowist bands now. The trend is dead nuts neutral--so no help there. High 5 day stochastics hook about to cross the middle band and downward trend on the 5 day stochastics gives it a downward break bias. SHVA May be making its next move up, but it seems too early for that. Volatility is pretty neutral and low and is due to increase. On an uptrend but should be consolidating for the next move. Buy a break up only. SMOD The trend is slightly down. Volatility is increasing and is currently pretty high making this a good trader right now. 5 day stochastics at the lower band and hooking upwared. Downward slope on the 5 day stochastic moving average. I'd buy it here for a quick play to the upside because of the high current volatility and the hook upward in the 5 day stochastic. SOCR Volatility continues to decrease. This thing doesn't appear to be going any lower in the next few days. If short--take profits and try to reshort at a higher price. SUNW This stock is acting unpredictably. Buy a break above $47.50. Volatility is likely to increase but currently low. Bottomed real quick. Short if price stalls at $47.50. SYNT on a strong uptrend but momentum is losing steam. Second stochastic peak lower than the first. Volatility is still increasing. May want to try a quick short because of the existing high volatility which is decreasing. TDFX Neutral volatility. Downward volatility is increasing. The trend is slightly down. Trend on 5 day stochastic moving average is down. Price is near the upper band ($25) and 5 day stochastics are at the upper band. Short here for a quick play or wait for a downward hook in stochastics. TMX Volatility is staying pretty much the same--low making it hard to trade for much profit. On a slight downtrend. Looking for a rehook downwards on 5 day stochastics--not showing a peak yet. Short at the upper band at about $52.50--pretty quick 3-5 day play. TRBO Volatility is decreasing. Neutral trend/slight uptrend.Not enough profit potential. Downtrend on 5 day stochastic moving average too to keep price moves down. 5 day stochastic is starting to hook up again. 5 day stochastics will whipsaw you on these narrow bands. TSSW Uptrend still intact. Volatility is neutralizing again. Looking for a hook to buy into. 5 day stochatics under 20. UEIC Nice uptrend--going through consolidation phase. Volatility is fully peaked for those that like to write covered calls. If long take profits and look for next buy-in hopefully lower. 5 day stochastics hooked down about halfway. Because of the high volatility it is probably shortable here down about 0.50. Set tight stop if you do that. VECO Volatility is increasing. Good uptrend. 5 day stochastics peaked and hooking down a bit-but because of the uptrend I think I'd ignore it unless it hooks down further. Neutral trend on 5 day stochastic moving average--life left in this uptrend. Unknown profit potential. $40 maybe on next run or just under. WCII The trend continues upward. Looks like a quick buy. Looking further ahead it looks like uptrend is getting weary. Take profits at the next top. Looks like volatility is due to increase to the upside--take profits on that next run at the peak in volatility. WTT Momentum appears to be slowing for this run. The volatility has peaked so I'd expect consoldation again until the bands are narrowed. Due to the existing high volatility, I think this is tradable from the short side--even though this goes against the trend. Use tight stops if you do that. The trend on stochastics is up. 5 day stochastics are hooked downward about halfway. If you are long--take profits. XCIT Volatility due to start increasing. Neutral trend after a small dip. Longer term trend is up. 5 day stochastics hooking upward. Looks like a quick buy (1-3 days) for now.

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