Paul,
IMO, now is a good time to buy puts. I don't think Disney will go
down to 50-60 or even 80, but I think they should drop down to 100
soon and even lower. Perhaps Puts with expiration a few months down
the road would be ideal.
I don't think that Disney can help but to disappoint this upcoming
quarter. Strong dollar, weak Asian currencies, weak ABC ratings,
bad weather in California, tornadoes in Florida, possibility of
La Nina (the spring/summer counterpart of El Nino -- which sometimes
follows an El Nino), parents becoming disgruntled and distrustful over
Disney content, theme park and hotel competition, animation feature
competition, recent weak box office of Disney features all add up --
and I think that add up to earnings disappointment.
I welcome opposing opinions, because I currently have only a little
money invested in puts at this time, but am thinking of adding more
in the right circumstances. If my thinking is wrong, I welcome opposing views.
From what it looks like to me, is that Disney Corp is not doing as
well as it should considering its current price.
- RDH |
