OK everyone here goes some answers :)
RE: TMAR,HMAR- TMAR and HMAR have been consolidating the offshore supply/crew/anchor handling boats in the Gulf and elsewhere around the world. TMAR has the greatest concentration of its boats in the GOM and therefore is more susceptible to a fall off in dayrates there. Currently dayrates remain above last years level at ~8300 a day. However there is some concern abou the number of new ships destined to come online later in the year. This could put some downward pressure on rates in the GOM. Elsewhere in the world dayrates continue to climb and have not come close to the rates commanded in the Gulf.
HMAR on the other hand has its boats spread out around the world and is therefore shielded somewhat from GOM dayrate pressures. Also HMAR is consolidating the tugboat/towing industry in the USA. This will help offset any fluctuations in oilservice dayrates. They also have a patent on a tug that requires a 2 man crew as opposed to the normal 3 and is also operationally superior to other tugs.
All that being said, there is still room for more consolidation in the energy services area for both these companies and the effect of ships coming out of drydock, aquisitions, and increasing dayrates should bode well for both of these companies. I personally like HMAR over TMAR, but own both for the long term.
RE: drilling offshore/onshore
I would rate the drillers this way: Deep water > shallow water/boats > land in terms of earnings stability and current demand. However that being said the land drillers have the most potential in terms of appreciation when land rates turn around since there costs are fixed and any increase goes straight to the bottom line. This is true for all drillers as well, but land is more suceptible because the length of contract for a land rig is much shorter than for a deep water or shallow water rig.
The following is a link to worldwide offshore rig count and utilization rates.
offshore-data.com
Main thing to notice is the rig utilization percentages as compared to a year ago and five years ago. Notice that the worldwide total has fallen about 20 rigs while the utilization rate has increased 15%.
One other event that I forgot to mention is the expiration of leases in the Gulf of Mexico esp. deep water leases. Its either drill now or loose your rights to that land. This is keeping the demand high for deepwater rigs.
So here is a breakdown of some stocks and where they are in the scheme of things.
Deep water: RIG, DO, CDG, FLC, NE
Shallow water: GLM, MDCO
Land Drillers: NBR,GW,PDS
Boats: HMAR,TMAR,TDW
Rig buidling/maintenence:FGII, GIFI, UFAB
If you want to play the land drillers I would go with either GW which has a lot of exposure to natural gas drilling and NBR who has the deepest onshore drilling capability.
Also check out:
lonestar.texas.net
for indepth comparison of each company.
Alex G. |
