Jim P., The RISK here is well defined in your last paragraph (attached):
>>DELL, the stock's, real risk is not fundamental performance of the company. We are too far from the next EPS report for that. It is the risk that investors loose confidence in Dell the company to perform flawlessly. In the face of recent announcements within the industry, I think this risk is increasing that confidence may be shaken.
I take this opportunity to throw out another hurdle. With AMD close to raising $1 billion, + IBM's foundry, There is an increasing possibility that INTC could loose 10-20% of the CPU market to AMD, Due to their Slot 1 / socket 7 battle. This event, while it may not fundamentally hurt DELL, could add to the confidence risk I describe above.<<
I agree with this. I wish that it weren't the case, but it is.
I especially agree with your assessment re: fundamentals and the point that we are too far from the next earnings report to effectively prevent a downturn with good new, unless of course, the company breaks with tradition, and lays it out ahead of time. And, by laying it out, I'm not talking about having a conference call with Tom Meredith to discuss generalities. |
