Roger's 1998 Short Picks Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks

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To: Pancho Villa who wrote (4794)	3/11/1998 7:14:00 PM
From: hasbeen101	Read Replies (2) of 18691

What do you mean by tanking? A 30% drop? I suppose even a spike down by 30% could happen if there was a huge event like war in the Middle East. But realistically, my humble opinion is that the US market is 15% overvalued but that this overvaluation will probably persist for another couple of years. The reason is simple: The US has a system that works. It is not based on cronyism and corruption (unlike some of the Asian countries). It does not have a welfare state (like most of Europe). It totally dominates the software industry, which is one of the biggest generators of wealth generation we have seen this century. Who knows how the US market will fluctuate, but I think prudent shorting based on stock-specific factors is the only sound strategy for shorting in the US market. I would not count on help from the broader index.

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