Kerry, I have always been frustrated when it comes to ferreting out secondaries. I read last month that a secondary had been filed for, but how does one find out exactly when the shares will hit the market? From your previous post, I assume they hit the market today. Any insight on this would be helpful.
My take on the TA picture is very mixed. The following items are very positive:
1. High range breakout. Today's trading range was higher than that of the previous 21 days. Today's range was higher or equal to that of the previous 46 days. High range breakouts are significant.
2. A breakout to a new two month high is significant. This was a new all time high, which is significant.
3. The breakout was at about twice the normal volume (39 day moving average is 206,200). This indicates that the market was fully behind the move.
4. Resistance may have been perceived at 12 1/4, but the stock broke through that previous high and closed above it. That's positive.
5. Wilder's ADX indicator is at 38 (14 day DMI), which indicates that the upward trend is very strong.
But there are some negatives:
1. Appel's MACD histogram (MACD H) shows bearish divergence. While the stock made a new high, the MACD histogram did not. In fact, it was way low compared to previous peaks.
2. Wilder's 14 day Relative Strength Index also displayed a bearish divergence. Again, the stock made a new price high, but RSI did not.
I was in at 7 and out at 10 3/4. Today, I jumped back in, based on price action and volume. But the TA analysis calls for caution. I'm optimistic but must stay cautious as well, as the indicators I mentioned are most accurate when they show divergence.
Again, any help on spotting secondaries will be appreciated.
Harry |
