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Non-Tech : Simula (SMU)

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To: Richard Silvers who wrote (988)3/11/1998 9:57:00 PM
From: Jaime H. Ayalde   of 1671
 
Ok Richard I'll bite,

Message 3579217

Its still true: Technically +17.375 would be a Great Technical sign. Selling towards that number has provided shorters with equity. Closing over that point would make them cover.

This last mini - impulse (14.75 low and 17.375 High) = 2.625
The maximum correction allowed for this impulse would be (distanced travelled) * (golden ratio)

2.625*.618 =1.62
17.375 - 1.62=15.75

So here we are at the moment of truth.

The short hedge has been Golden for arbs. No dud here. (if)* As the stock trades at higher prices "Arbs" could start getting hurt as the appreciation on the converts will never be 1 : 1 with common. The delta on the converts is always less than 1. And the higher the price on the common, Delta will further be depressed. That is why the arbs make more money as the price declines, but the inverse will be also true.
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