Rejoice, Wade ! I am out of NANO. The final drop was the other analyst following NANO (I assume Sutro): 0.7 EPS for '98. This gives an average of 0.76, vs. 0.65 per '97. Not my kind of a growing company.
I also sold JMAR - hyped even by its execs. Made some change there. For the first time in more than one year I have CASH (yes, TRASH) in my account. I am the eternal bull, especially on TECHS. But, these days, market is unreasonably bullish. Bellweathers as INTC, CPQ, MOT are in trouble, and boy, is so itchy to short DELL, YAHO, AMZN. Those guys are in big trouble. NANO, is relatively safe. But their future is extremely fuzzy.
So, I urge you my friends to consider this: stormy days are ahead of us. Some of you know how "brave" I was in October (boy, completely crazy: 50% on margin, until 1 month ago !!!). If I am scared now, maybe it means something. This are my reasons:
1. The year 2000 bug. Companies will spend less on information technology, because they MUST solve that problem, in a very short time. This will drive down demand for computers, software, etc.
I think only the Internet companies, and high quality newtworkers will be safe. And remember: none of INTC, CPQ, ANDW blamed Asia. The problem is here.
2. Of course, the situation in Asia. South Korea is almost wiped out from the semis map, for a few years. Some chip manufs will be OK, because some chip prices will increase. But the semi equip will not do so great.
The ONLY positive: Europe is in great shape, as I witnessed with my own eyes. But NANO has not too much business there.
I'll keep an eye on NANO, and to your desperation, maybe I'll be back.
Good luck to all of you.
Cheers,
Dan |
