Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 223.95

+1.7%

Nov 21 9:30 AM EST

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To: Tito L. Nisperos Jr. who wrote (17502)	3/12/1998 12:01:00 AM
From: William Nelson	Read Replies (1) of 70976

Tito, I think this is a very interesting line of thought. No doubt there are whole books on buying cyclic stocks, but anway amateurs can still ponder it.... One thing I've failed to understand is, why doesn't the market smooth out the cycles? I mean, if everyone KNOWS the good times are coming back, why sell?? The only reason is you think someone else might be selling. A fund manager probably won't want to risk having a cyclic stock fall on him when its earnings are bottoming, because customers will think he's an idiot. So they get out of it and hence it falls. Anyway, it's strange to apparently have money handed to you on a plate, just for having a slightly longer horizon. I have to assume that a strategy of buying cyclicals during troughs doesn't beat the street...I don't have experience to know...

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