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Technology Stocks : All About Sun Microsystems

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To: Byron Xiao who wrote (8233)	3/12/1998 1:47:00 AM
From: uu	Read Replies (1) of 64865

Byron: > Is there any reason to believe that the concern on high tech is gone now, after the market bounced back strongly today and last Friday after some strong sell offs? Is it time to get back into tech stock yet? I continue to strongly think the market bounce back (especially in the high techs) is nothing but a bubble to be burst any seconds. Therefore I still do not feel comfortable to jump back in yet. But please note this is just my humble opinion and the strategy that I have chosen to take may end up being absolutely wrong! I have taken this strategy based strictly on what I see to be taking place in the field I am working and from what I see tech companies are going through. And based on my own understanding I can not possibly believe these companies can meet the earnings as expected by the Wall Street. The Asian situation, combined with Y2K uncertainty are more serious than most seem to think at this time. Therefore if valuations are still based on revenue and earnings growth, the current stock prices are extremely high (IMHO). On the other hand as I am sure you know it too, stock prices do not always represent fundamentals but rather momentum playing. In my opinion what we are going through now is pure momentum playing (i.e. too much money chasing stocks), and I for one do not have the guts to play the market based on mometum. It is simply too risky for my taste. As for your question regarding my current portfolio allocation, I bought back a bit of my SUNW shares the other day at $37.98/shr and after that purchase I am now about 67% cash and 33% in stocks (as oppose to 70% cash 30% stocks I was prior to that purchase). I still think high techs will come down dramatically from their current valuations sometime by the end of May. And we will see SUNW in the $33-$38 range, INTC in the $65-$70 range, and MSFT in the $62-$67/shr (just to name a few). In my opinnion as much as one needs to have patience when it comes to sell a stock, one also needs to have the same patience (if not more) to buy a stock. But again please note this is just my opinion only and believe me I have proven to be wrong many times in the past! Regards, Addi Jamshidi

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