I have been a shareholder in BLUD for over three years. If you have seen some of my posts to the boards (AOL mostly), I have come to the conclusion , about a year ago, that BLUD cannot handle the demand for the ABS2000. BLUD needs help in the form of a big cap partner offering a distribution agreement. OR BLUD must go...allow itself to be bought out by a big player; like Abbot, J&J, Bectin-Dickenson, Etc. etc. I differ slightly with Mason's opinion that BLUD can bring in big profits with the ABS.
Yes the demand is there, but the potential to deliver is not up to the job. I believe BLUD can see an EPS of $1 in the first year...translates to about $30- 35 share price. But a big cap company could probably do three times the sales or more of ABS units in the first year. According to Ed Gallup, CEO, BLUD has about a 3 year window of exclusivity in the automated blood typing (ABS) arena....then competitors may emerge. BLUD needs help to saturate the ABS market with units fairly quickly. According to Gallup, told to me in a conference call I participated in about 9 months or a year ago, BLUD can place about 1 ABS unit per week in the first 6 months and then 2 or 3 units per week in the next 6 months. This doesn't even begin to satisfy the market.
I believe a buy out is the most likely scenario. One other thing I learned in the conference call: J&J at that time announced that they have terminated efforts to produce a blood typing (ABS type) device to compete with BLUD. My analysis: a buy out is a lot cheaper than R&D. J&J is, or at least was, industry leader in the blood test reagent business. With the advent of the ABS, J&J's leadership is sure to be lost. J&J doesn't like to be second best in anything. They buy companies all the time. ..remember their net profit is in the billions each year. To buy BLUD at 30 or 40 per share X 8 million shares = pocket change !
Dominic
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