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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs
SPY 659.00+1.0%Nov 21 4:00 PM EST
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To: Clint E. who wrote (15290)3/12/1998 4:01:00 AM
From: Johnny Canuck  Read Replies (2) of 68212
 
Clint,

I quickly ran through the MOT numbers on the weekend.
What was stated in the press release does not match
the model I have for their earnings.

On a yearly basis and based on last year's numbers,
semiconductors accounted for 13.8 percent of their earnings while
cellular products produced 58 percent, messaging,
information and media products 24.5 percent and
other products 3 percent.

They stated the problem was mainly in the semiconductor group.
But based on the percentages above and the earnings
estimate before the warning of 65 cents, the group should have
accounted for only 9 cents per share this quarter. Even if
that group made no money this Q it does not account for the
bulk of the earnings short fall.

I am inclined to think the cellular groups earnings were
flat instead of the 20 percent growth expected. 20 percent
is the long term growth rate for the total company.

That coupled with the ANDW warnings which suggested
that a portion of their problems was due to lower sales to
PCS providers in the US may be suggesting that
subscriber growth rates may be slowing to lower sustainable
levels.

MOT management sounded very unprepared and evasive on the
conference call by the way.

Harry
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