Actually, Your "I'm out" post:
Message 3421299
is an excellent example on difficulties in timing. It was posted right after LGND traded on record volume (almost 2 million) after they were mentioned the night before (and during the following day) on CNBC because of the rat breast cancer results with Targretin. I assumed that you sold on the 12th. LGND's bid had moved to $17 before the open and the price opened at $16. However the price quickly moved into th 15's and closed at 14 1/2.
Two week's earlier, when LGND was around $11, someone on this board said it was heading for $10. However, LGND had an earnings surprise and the price exploded. Some might have looked at that sharp move up a few days earlier as a selling opportunity (especially if they believed the heading for $10 post). Such a sale would of course have missed the big move up a couple of days later.
On the 12th it was equally hard to call. I think that the number of shares sold in the high 15s was relatively small. A sale at that time looked smart short term (in hindsight). It took LGND a month to get back to 16. Thus someone who bought at 11 or 12 and sold on Feb 12 made money, but the profit was largely influenced by the time of the sale.
Yesterday, the price jumped again (to 16 1/2). It then fell back to 16 shortly thereafter, but now its heading north again before the open.
In the past you have mentioned selling at $17 and most recently you indicated that you sold somewhere between 14 1/2 and 16. You like the science, but it's not clear if you like the current price. Last year LGND indicated that they would be profitable in 1999 and would not require additional sale of stock.
However, this year you sold, but plan on being on board some time before the big move up. You may have posted specifics elsewhere, but from what I saw in your posts, as far as LGND was concerned, you were/are on the sidelines after Feb 12.
As I have said about others who post on this board, its very easy to call LGND with 20/20 hindsight, but short term timing can be difficult. |
