--Since this is Silicon Investor, I was assuming that the topic of interest was the stock. The total apathy for any serious discussion of valuation and the stated purpose of your research report make it clear that I was mistaken.--
I think this statement is false. It seems to me that every time you pose this question about the valuation you have received myriad responses. Now you may not agree with these responses as you have stated and your method for valuation may be entirely different. Fine. I think alot of people who have been investors for a long time have difficulty understanding the valuations of companies like TAVA, IMRS, SYNT, YHOO, XCIT, AMZN, PSFT and on and on. These companies are all in differnet businesses but the common link is that they are all invovled in segments that are believed to see explosive growth. Unprecedented growth! I think this entails an entirely new attitude toward these such companies.The ones that succeed in these markets (ie. internet, Y2K combined with computer automation or outsourcing, electronic commerce etc etc.) will soon justify these now lofty valuations. The ones that fail or dont become leaders in their fields will quickly lose these valuations. TAVA has enormous potential- do you agrre with that?- and I think has a long way to go before being considered overvalued. Let's remember these guys are just getting geared up and since they have yet to post a profit, their current valuation is based entirely on the forward looking prospects (which the company themselves say is near impossible to gauge). If TAVA is able to meet their goals, if they are able to enter into contracts with huge Fortune 500 companies, if they continue to sell their CD etc., if they continue to be guided by, what seems to me, excellent management then they will be very successful and their stock will surely reflect that. At $9 a share you see TAVA as overvalued, I see TAVA as significantly undervalued. I see TAVA's potential market as quite large AFTER Y2K. Factory automation and assessment will be TAVA's future meal ticket. Y2K is giving them the opportunity to have a large menu of clients to service (not to mention the large amount of cash it will bring in).
So you tell me how to apply a valuation to that. How do you apply a valuation to the internet? How about electronic commerce? I dont think you can yet. At this point people are simply placing their bets. I bet that all of these markets will succeed dramatically. I also believe this will create the new Giants of industry.
Let's see what the numbers are over the next couple of quarters. We will better be able to extrapolate from them. Right now, it is all just speculation no matter what numbers you use.
BTW, what, in your opinion is a fair stock price for TAVA right now? What do you see the stock price at a year from now ( I suspect it is greater than 9 since you own some)? |
