I don't know where the WSJ got the idea that servers were the problem for CPQ, though some of their low end servers may well be a (small) part of the overall problem.
I got some of the info for my 3/8 post (33162) from the CRN website 3/6 story (I think a synopsis of this was posted on the Yahoo business wire):
crn.com
My estimates for the channel inventory were around 340,000 to 430,000 units. That was a BOE estimate based on the 1997 Q3 ASP's I had for CPQ's desktop line. A more recent (3/12) CRN story has raised the numbers somewhat, but they're still talking only about commercial desktops and not servers, plus their estimate is based on a "spot check of seven distributors online inventory systems" and so may understate the total numbers:
crn.com
Note that CRN lists the bulk of the channel inventory as older "Pentium" and Pentium Pro" desktops, and that's consistent with the other info I've collected.
Based on this info, IMO DELL will not be impacted much, if at all, for reasons that I've partially explained in my earlier posts.
If you have any sources that describe the extent to which CPQ's servers are involved in the inventory problem, I'd appreciate it if you could post them. In any event, it's surely not the CPQ Proliant 7000, which is their top of the line server unit and is not even on their current price promotion list.
David T. |
