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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 224.00-2.0%9:50 AM EST

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To: Gottfried who wrote (17648)3/13/1998 12:20:00 AM
From: Clarksterh  Read Replies (1) of 70976
 
GM - Japan in recession has not bothered us too much the last 7 years they've been in it. NOW it is supposed to impact the US greatly.
Could you explain why, please.


Although I agree with you that Japan's being in a recession is not a catastrophe for the US, a full blown depression would be. (A huge percent of our exports go to Japan.) And, although I think it is unlikely, it is possible that something will tip them into that state. For the last 7 years they have been edging ever closer to an unknowable precipice, and no one knows when they will slip over. Hopefully they fix their system before then, but ... .

Thus, I think the SEA crisis is unlikely to send us into a recession, and is likely to have only a short term effect on semiconductor equ sales. However, if China, or especially Japan, fall off the cliff, we might have some problems.

JMO.

Clark
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