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Technology Stocks : Vari-L (VARL)
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To: Gregory DeMoully who wrote (640)3/13/1998 1:43:00 AM
From: FIFO_kid2  Read Replies (2) of 2702
 
The way the stock is acting I agree that it is perceived that the earnings will be at least in line perhaps better. I am concerned that the immediate orders may be delayed perhaps canceled by some customers and the Lucent order for 10 Million is supposed to be spread out over a few years. I also don't know what percentage of the LU order is included in the backlog. Backlog doesn't at all necessarily guarantee current sales. I got burned by many stocks too numerous to mention in the past with a large increase in backlog and either they would experience order delays, cancellations or even shortages of components. I have heard every excuse. It does comfort me that VARL is doing more business with the European wireless firms as well as LU. Nevertheless, I don't think a slightly weak report will hurt the stock much since last year's comparable qtr was extremely low. The money flow in this stock is also unbelievably high and we finally have more analyst coverage thus more visibility. Personally, I was slightly disappointed in VARL's 4th qtr 1997 report as being towards my lower end so the trend may continue yet the stock traded higher on the news. I am anticipating only 15-25% earnings growth from the company this year. For now, I am more concerned with ST price action with VARL. I did the long term marriage thing with VARL and felt I was being ripped off. So much a sucker I am it appears I am remarried to MIZR. But I am convinced most of your money should be used for the old casino routine because these markets change awfully fast.Good luck to you!
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