its still free and i didn't get scolded yesterday
FORTUCAST FINANCIAL TIMER
PRECISE TIMING AND PRICE MOVEMENT ANALYSIS BY BARRY ROSEN
UPDATED MARCH 12TH FOR MARKETS OF MARCH 13TH
UPCOMING ECONOMIC REPORTS Last
3/13 Producer Price Index Jan: -0.7%
3/13 Jan. Business Inventories Dec: +0.4%
3/13 Univ. of Mich. Sent. Feb: 110.4
STOCKS and MAR. and JUNE S & P
WEEKLY CHART TREND: Higher into late June but with a big scare in April.
DAILY CHART TREND: Higher to 1093 basis June S & P.
TODAY'S EXPECTED RANGE AND DIRECTION: Lower and recovering.
NEXT HOURLY CHART NEXT DAILY CHART NEXT WEEKLY CHART
TURN: 3/13 L/H TURN: 3/17 H; 4/8 H TURN: 6/98 H
SWING-TRADE TRADING STRATEGY: Exit March longs at 1082 or by the close of the
March 17 if not filled. Hold June longs into the close of the 17th also.
DAY-TRADE TRADING STRATEGY: Buy June 1080.40 mit with a 1077.40 stop. Exit
1093.10 oco market on close Friday.
(3/13) We are still getting a projection to at least 1093.30 with first
resistance at 1087.30 and 1091.00. If the trade likes the PPI and other
upcoming reports, the market still could accelerate higher toward 1120 on the
cash and 1133 on the June futures. Those numbers may take until June to
manifest but could happen sooner. Any pullbacks are likely to stay above the
1080 region at this point and if we fall more than 10 points from any high
then we could manifest a quick 32-point correction to 1054 but we are
skeptical. We did like the new high on the Dow, which now projects 8813 and
we could easily hit our old weekly chart target of 8950. But will it take
until April 8 to manifest or will it happen by next week?
DAY-TRADE TRADING STRATEGY: Continue to buy 5-6 point pullbacks off of
Thursday's high.
CYCLES: If the Michigan report does not go over well, we could have a quick
early drop as minor cycles are weak overnight and into early Friday. We
expect some really bad news could come out of Asia overnight but the trade
does not care anyway. Major cycles are still higher into the 17th at the
close and we see no reason to top-pick until then.
LARGER OVERVIEW: Unless Japan dumps its US bonds on the market, it appears
nothing will phase the fund-manager bulls from pushing this market higher.
We do expect that the impact on Asia will get intense enough in April to
again create volatility and potentially push the market down to the 906
region into the May cycle low--but we may hit the 1133 region first.
TECHNOLOGY INSIGHTS: (2/24) Look for particular weakness in the technology
and communications sectors from about March 5-April 13, which means that
NASDQ should particularly start trailing the broader market.
INTRADAY NOTES: New services now in effect: QUICK-TRADES HOTLINE: updated at
8:20 am and hourly from 8:30 am-1:30 pm CST; $2.50 PER CALL.
S & P COMMENTARY LINE: updated with pre-opening comments and at 10:35 am,
12:35 pm, and 2:00 pm; longer and more detailed; priced monthly.
TRADE ALERT: computerized calls alert traders to set-ups for more significant
swing trades is now operating for trades with good risk/rewards. Call
1-515-472-6866 for details.
OEX NOTES: (3/13) Longer-term, patterns project 527 as late as April 8 with
major support at 490-492 probably holding. Continue to favor calls for
another 3 trading days.
JUNE T-BONDS
WEEKLY CHART TREND: Lower.
DAILY CHART TREND: Higher.
TODAY'S EXPECTED RANGE AND DIRECTION: Topping and lower and then higher.
NEXT HOURLY CHART NEXT DAILY CHART NEXT WEEKLY CHART
TURN: 3/13 L/H TURN: 4/13 L TURN: 6/98 H
TRADING STRATEGY: Stand aside.
(3/13) T-Bonds continue to act like they are for real with minor resistance
at 121.13 and support at 120.25. There is a chance that they could
accelerate toward 122.01 and we probably have a sale in the 121.24-122.01
region within the next day. The bigger picture still suggests 116.07 with
the next low due around March 23-24. We are too overbought to chase this
market on the upside and we do see a recovery and dips should probably be
bought one more time on Friday. By next week, the energy is shifting again
to the negative side. The bigger pattern is somewhat elusive but we could be
starting a complicated "B" wave congestion between 118-122 before we more
lower to 116.07.
FOREIGN CURRENCY NOTES
(3/13) We are likely to be higher on the dollar on Friday and probably
continue higher to Tuesday of next week. We are still inclined to see a
higher dollar into around March 17 and would favor selling foreigns here.
JUNE DEUTSCHEMARK
DAILY CHART TREND: Lower toward 5398.
TODAY'S EXPECTED RANGE AND DIRECTION: Lower.
NEXT HOURLY CHART NEXT DAILY CHART NEXT WEEKLY CHART
TURN: 3/13 L TURN: 3/16-17 L TURN: 6/98 L
SWING-TRADE TRADING STRATEGY: Add shorts at 5518 (or market on open if hit in
the night session) with a 5542 stop.
(3/13) We should start lower again on Friday and you may want to add a second
position if we get a decent risk/reward as we should be lower into late
Tuesday or early Wednesday. Look for resistance at 5529 and 5536 and a major
target on the downside over the next week of 5397 with first support at 5445.
We may open higher on the DM on Thursday and stay below 5529 and that may
offer a selling opportunity with a low into Friday and probably
Monday-Tuesday of next week.
THE LARGER PATTERN: The confirmed breakdown on the DM inclined it toward a
move to the 4600 region into June and rallies should be sold. However, we
may get a bounce off of the 5400 region and have a better possibility from a
later date.
JUNE JAPANESE YEN
DAILY CHART TREND: Lower.
TODAY'S EXPECTED RANGE AND DIRECTION: Lower.
NEXT HOURLY CHART NEXT DAILY CHART NEXT WEEKLY CHART
TURN: 3/16 L TURN: 3/16 L TURN: 9/98 L
SWING-TRADE TRADING STRATEGY: Hold shorts into Monday.
(3/13) The gap lower on continued BOJ scandals created a bad fill and part of
that gap could still be filled, with resistance at 7860, 7890 and 7905. We
should still be lower into Monday but we may need to cover early next week.
We see lower yen prices toward the 7650 region into early next week. Since
we continue to fail to rally much, the energy appears to be on the short side
and we will make sure that we get something on. Resistance is up at the
downtrending line at 8048. The bigger picture over the next few weeks on the
yen suggests a fall to the 7632 region to complete 3 waves down. But that
still may be followed by 3 or 5 waves up back toward the 8200-8300 region.
Daily stochastics have turned lower reminding us to favor shorts.
BIGGER PICTURE: It appears the yen will continue to depreciate toward 130 and
perhaps 135.
JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
TODAY'S EXPECTED RANGE AND DIRECTION: Bottoming and higher.
TRADING STRATEGY: Stand aside.
(3/13) At this point we assuming that the CD will hold up into Monday and
Tuesday of next week. Look for resistance at 7174 as being the max. upside
with minor resistance at the 7146 region and then 7163 and 7175 with support
at 7103 and 7090. The weekly chart trend is suggesting a move toward 7310
but we did not think that the CD could muster the energy to make it up.
APRIL GOLD
WEEKLY CHART TREND: Lower into April.
DAILY CHART TREND: Higher.
TODAY'S EXPECTED RANGE AND DIRECTION: Sideways.
SWING-TRADE TRADING STRATEGY: Hold shorts.
(3/13 no change) Our next energy point for gold is now Friday at the open and
we will see what develops as it's not totally clear. Resistance is at 295.80
and 297.40 and 299 and we are inclined to accumulate as we think the downside
is more likely to manifest this month. The later we get into March, the more
bearish we will get so we are looking for a good risk/reward for new shorts
at this point but we will be patient for another day.
MAY SILVER
WEEKLY CHART TREND: Lower into late April.
DAILY CHART TREND: Bottoming.
TODAY'S EXPECTED RANGE AND DIRECTION: Volatile. Lower, higher
NEXT HOURLY CHART NEXT DAILY CHART NEXT WEEKLY CHART
TURN: 3/13 L/H; 3/16 L TURN: 3/17 TURN: 4/98 L; 7/98 H
SWING-TRADE TRADING STRATEGY: Cover shorts at 588.
(3/13) The late bounce on silver was puzzling but patterns are suggesting
that we are not likely to take out 634 or 642 and downside patterns still
look very possible to 596 and 588. We are willing to hold into Monday but
will probably use a tight stop if we hold beyond there as there is a major
turn at the close on Tuesday and it probably is a low but we need more
pattern information to confirm that. We may be finishing the first push down
in a large consolidation on silver and the best buying opportunity for the
next few months may be manifesting soon.
BIGGER PICTURE: Longer-term, cycles support higher prices into July toward
the 780 and perhaps the 840 region. The market does appear vulnerable to the
downside into late April but a large congestion pattern between 700 and 540
still could manifest. See monthly newsletter for longer-term cycles and
pattern details.
MAY CRUDE
WEEKLY CHART TREND: Lower to 1208-1240 into June.
DAILY CHART TREND: Bottoming and higher to 1652.
TODAY'S EXPECTED RANGE AND DIRECTION: Higher.
NEXT HOURLY CHART NEXT DAILY CHART NEXT WEEKLY CHART
TURN: 3/13 L/H; 3/16 L TURN: 4/16 H TURN: 4/98 H; 6/98 L
SWING-TRADE TRADING STRATEGY: Hold longs.
(3/13) I'm beginning to get tired of bottom-picking crude as my lowest
numbers continue to get hit and then the computer starts generating another
lower number. The latest is 1341 on the May contract with first support at
1415 and 1398. While we do have a number of major cycles bottoming here and
higher prices due, we are beginning to tire of the long side--which may be an
indication that we are finally bottoming. Our next major turn is on Monday
and we still cannot rule out another wash-out.
LONGER-TERM: We still could hit new lows into late June region if rallies
fail to go above 1662 into the April high.
Have a great trading day! Barry Rosen
STATEMENT OF DISCLAIMER
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL
RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES TRADING.
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF
WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT
WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN
FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE
RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR
TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE
GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL
TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD
CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING.
FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR
TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO
ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS
RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC
TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL
TRADING RESULTS.
BARRY ROSEN HAS LITTLE OR NO EXPERIENCE IN TRADING ACTUAL ACCOUNTS FOR
HIMSELF OR FOR HIS CUSTOMERS. BECAUSE THERE ARE NO ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS TO
COMPARE TO THE HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS, CUSTOMERS SHOULD BE
PARTICULARLY WARY OF PLACING UNDUE RELIANCE ON THESE HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE
RESULTS. REGISTERED CFTC.
************************* CURRENT OPEN POSITIONS ****************************
OPEN PROFIT/
MARKET MO. S/L ENTRY STOP (LOSS)
S & P MAR. LONG 1051.60 1059.10 5225
S & P JUN. LONG 1077.70, 1076.50 1070.30 3450
T-BONDS JUN. FLAT
DM JUN. SHORT 5486 5542 (200)
YEN JUN. SHORT 7827 7970 (62.50)
CANADIAN JUN. FLAT
GOLD APR. SHORT 295.60 301.30 50
SILVER MAY SHORT 627.50 645 450
CRUDE MAY LONG 1470 1430 (130)
TOTAL OPEN PROFIT/(LOSS): 8782.50
Open profits or losses do not contain commissions.
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INTRADAY HOTLINE now available. Call 1-800-788-2796 for details & rates.
TRADING STRATEGIES: Day-Trade= 1-day; Swing= 2-5 days; Short-Term Position=
1-3 weeks; Position= 1 month or longer.
TRADING INSTRUCTIONS: Go with day entries for limit orders and unless
specified "night session ok." Stops are not accepted in the night session,
and some night session entries may be available in the day session. "Night
recommended" means we expect the best entry may be in the night session, and
this especially applies to report days and entries on the S & P before the
T-Bond market opens. MIT orders are accepted for block orders of T-Bonds at
certain trading desks. We are using stop limit orders to prevent absurd
fills on a large gap open or close. Breakout and breakdown orders on stops
should only be entered during the day session and should not be used at the
open of a market unless they are accompanied by a limit order. Note: (early
only) means first 1-1 1/2 hours of trade. Exit targets should be executed in
day or night session. Market on open orders with limits are only executable
during the opening range and should be pulled after five minutes if not
filled. If the market gaps under or over our stop at the open, the order is
negated and should not be entered later in the day. All times cited are
Central standard or daylight savings time.
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NOTE: This research is not intended for distribution to third parties for
promotional purposes.
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Fortucast Market Timing, Inc. PO Box 2066 Fairfield, IA 52556 (515)-472-6866 |
