Rob,
What if MSFT decides to make it (thin client/fat server) intergral to say NT6.0 at the end of 1999? Then whoever purchases NT6.0 will have thin client/fat server for "free." This is how Microsoft could squash Citrix no matter how large the installed base. Look at how many people used WordPerfect and ended up scrapping it in favor of the great "Office95." Or how about the Lotus vs. Excel battle. Lot's of people had WordPerfect and Lotus installed, trained on, and in use. Yet MSFT beat them all with Office95.
Look at how MSFT is probably going to squash Netscape. IE4.0 is going to be built right into the operating system for Win98 and the justice department isn't going to do a thing about it because they don't understand what is happening. How many people will feel confident ripping out IE4.0 out of Win98 when Bill Gates says, "It's integral and will ruin Win98"? Very, very few people are going to actually try to disect IE4.0 out of Win98 in my opinion. You can have a browser that is woven into Win98 or get an add-on. I think most will live with what's built in already. I can't believe MSFT got this one by the justice department. Sounds like they will only have to take off the 1kb icon on the desktop as their punishment. Big deal.
As far as Citrix, I could be wrong but I thought I read how MSFT is already building RDP right into NT5.0 for those that want it. Or the user can opt to go with an optional package that they pay extra for and that's when Citrix gets it's royalties.
My point is MSFT has two years to work on RDP, then say it's "integral" to NT5.0 when it's released at year end 1999. How many customers are going to try to unbundle it, purchase Winframe for real money, and install it over MSFT's Gatesframe?
I'm a big Citrix fan myself. The only thing that held me back from previously purchasing more was MSFT being able to squash Citrix if the market turns out to be lucrative enough to do so. Obviously Ray Thackeray (previous post) thinks it will be big and MSFT will take out Citrix. If the justice department came down hard on MSFT recently, then maybe I would bet against Ray and invest more money into Citrix. But they didn't seem to understand the problem with a relatively simple browser battle. Do you think they would ever figure out a thin client/fat server battle?
But no matter how you cut it, it does appear Citrix has a two year reprieve to build up it's fortress against MSFT, and who knows what the stock price may do in these two years? It's already a two-bagger for me. Most are slow to understand the downside regard CTXS vs. MSFT so maybe the stock will still take off? Also in the end, MSFT may just end up purchasing CTXS and the previous asking price (MSFT balked) of $400 million may seem cheap!
MikeM(From Florida)
PS I'm doing a lot of my writing from memory of research done over a year ago. I could easily have some facts wrong. |
