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Technology Stocks : NEXTEL

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To: Al Gutkin who wrote (5127)3/13/1998 8:44:00 AM
From: Bubba  Read Replies (2) of 10227
 
Merrill Upgrades NXTL

Highlights-

upgraded from 2/2 to 1/1.

Price target $35

Increased confidence in outlook.

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Some details

360k subs est for Q1

Q1 launch of Sao Paolo, Rio & Buenos Aires; Q2 Mexico City & Manila.

Signed letter on intent for 21.1% of 12 mhz iDEN Japan biz w/ 25.4mm net pops. 40,000 customers now, all dispatch. Interconnect this summer.

StarTac due Q3

Nextlink/LMDS bids going well.

9 US cities to launch Q2 1998

Values Int'l at $7 per share, incl Japan.

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My opinion - They are WAAAAAYYYYY too low. Int'l pops are worth at least $10. A recent deal in Israel went for $60/pop. Before Japan, they have 144mm int'l pops. Every $10/pop in value is $4 to NXTL. n.b. - these markets have LESS competition and HIGHER demand than US so they can be worth MORE per pop than US.

The Cap ex spending for 1998 has reallt got people spooked. A big Q1 number assuages all fears.

Reporting from the front -

Bubba
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