Pseudo, I think you did a good summary of most MEDI products and I would not be able to expand. I am NOT a pseudo biologist so I invest in biotechs by trusting the opinion of analysts who know more than I and have vast resources to analyse product, markets, competition. And they have more input from management than I.
On this basis, I have invested in MEDI. Even if their estimates are off somewhat, we still win with MEDI. The estimates for this year earnings are in $.40-$.50 range and several dollars for next year, with revenue estimates for 99 at about $250M. So as Synagis ramps up to even $400, much less a higher range, profits go out of sight.
I do know MEDI couldn't meet demand for its RespiGam, selling out the whole year product in advance. With Synagis being a superior product it should get off to a whopping start next RSV season, if approved. I would think FDA would grant approval in time for production of Synagis for next season in light of significant need/demand from medical community.
I did have a personal experience with RSV my grandchildren during last few months which gave me a scare. All turned out well but the experience made me realize how concerned/aware the local medical community is about RSV. This contrasts sharply to concerns just a few years ago about the disease when you hardly heard anything about it. MEDI has done an excellent job of RSV awareness education. Part of their RespiGam launch effort of two years ago.
Where did you get projections of over $400M for Synagis?
best of luck.......Bill |
