Paul,
Thanks much for your information and pointers on the DW symbols et al.
For us few news junkies, some Japan news below.
Regards, Teri
---
By George Nishiyama
Reuters
TOKYO, Japan (March 13) - Japan appears headed for its first recession in over two decades judging by data released on Friday, a prospect that is likely to strengthen calls for the government to take decisive steps to jump-start the economy.
Japan's economy shrank 0.2 percent in the October-December quarter from the previous quarter, prompting the government to admit that its growth target of 0.1 percent for the fiscal year ending on March 31 would be hard to achieve.
"When looking at the October-December data, it seems quite difficult to achieve around 0.1 percent growth this fiscal year," said Economic Planning Agency Vice Minister Shimpei Nukaya.
Although Nukaya said the economy was unlikely to worsen further, private economists said it was sure to show minus growth for fiscal 1997/98.
Yasuhiko Ushikubo, an economist at the Industrial Bank of Japan (IBJ), said: "It will be impossible to achieve the government's growth target of 0.1 percent for the fiscal year. A contraction of 0.4 or 0.5 percent will be more likely."
If Japan does slip into recession in 1997/98 it will be for the first time since the economy contracted 0.7 percent in fiscal 1974/75.
Economists said the outlook remained bleak, citing an absence of any bright signs.
Nukaya said consumption was likely to recover slightly, but economists disagreed.
Matthew Poggi, an economist with Lehman Brothers, said: "In terms of a rebound, I have to disagree a bit with the head of the EPA. So far, I haven't really seen a rebound in consumption in the first quarter. We've had household spending and retail sales numbers and they really don't look much better than the first quarter of last year."
In January, the percentage of disposable income that was actually used for spending at wage-earning households fell to a record low.
Economists also said the fallout from turmoil in Asian economies was likely to take its toll in the coming months.
"Given the weakness in Asia, I expect that it will have a significant negative impact on exports starting in the current quarter," said Peter Morgan, a senior economist at HSBC Securities.
External demand, or net exports, made a 0.6 percent contribution to October-December GDP while weak domestic demand slowed GDP by 0.8 percent. Domestic demand similarly provided a negative contribution to the full 1997 GDP, the first time it has done so since 1974.
The further evidence of the economy's feebleness will fuel calls for Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto to take steps, particularly fresh fiscal spending, to boost domestic demand.
"The only thing that we can now look forward to is public works spending," said the IBJ's Ushikubo.
A member of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party separately told Reuters Financial Television (RFTV) that the party is likely to propose an extra budget totaling 10 trillion yen ($77.5 billion) in fiscal 1998/99, starting on April 1.
Former transport minister Takeo Hiranuma said the party is likely to propose an extra budget following passage of the regular budget for 1998/99, which is currently being discussed in parliament.
REUTERS@ Reut08:45 03-13-98
Copyright 1998 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved.
---
Tokyo Stock Prices Soar
.c The Associated Press
TOKYO (AP) - Tokyo stocks soared today on a report the government will inject public money into the market to support stock prices at the end of this month. The dollar fell against the yen.
The benchmark 225-issue Nikkei Stock Average jumped 484.92 points, or 2.93 percent, to close at 17,060.14 points. On Thursday, the average closed down 180.92 points, or 1.08 percent.
The Asahi newspaper reported today the government intends to pump $10.11 billion into the stock market, using funds from the government-controlled postal savings and insurance systems.
The aim of the plan would be to push the Nikkei average above 18,000 before the fiscal year ends March 31 to boost profits and capital levels for the nation's banks, the paper said. Japanese banks hold shares of other companies in their investment portfolios.
"You don't bet against the government. That's all I can say," said Louis Tseng, head of derivatives at Jardine Fleming Securities.
Senior government officials have already said they want the Nikkei to rise to around 18,000 by fiscal year-end, and have suggested using postal savings and insurance funds to buy stocks.
The Tokyo Stock Price Index of all issues of all issues listed on the stock exchange's first section gained 26.49 points, or 2.12 percent, to close at 1,276.20 points. The TOPIX closed down 11.40 points, or 0.90 percent, the day before.
Trading was active, with an estimated 770 million share changing hands. Advances overwhelmed declines 1,010 to 169, while 94 issues were unchanged.
The sharp rise in stocks supported the yen against the U.S. dollar.
The dollar was traded at 128.51 yen, down 0.50 yen from late Thursday in Tokyo and also below its late New York rate of 129.32 yen overnight.
The yield on the benchmark No. 182 10-year Japanese government bond rose to 1.535 percent from Thursday's finish of 1.525 percent, driving its price down to 109.85 yen from 109.93 yen.
AP-NY-03-13-98 0441EST
Copyright 1998 The Associated Press.
--- |
