My guess is that the true nature of the Web is going to be far different than you or I can imagine today.
You're quite right.
Portal, gatekeeper, kingmaker, those are the key words in my lexicon that you keep brushing right on past because you're just so fired up over what technology can do.
No, my point is that the ability to be gatekeeper depends on the technology. It's the technology that enables people to go in and out of the gate. It's precisely that gate, I'm arguing, that is AOL's biggest vulnerability.
I do admit the need to research further whether or not AOL can ditch its current architecture and become a true Internet company. If so, their low-tech gate may be repairable.
Go, hurry out and short the stock.
I believe that the fundamentals are there already, but that the bubble still has a lot of hot air in it.
Aren't you at least a little bit concerned that he knows some things you don't, rather than vice versa.
My understanding is that George Soros is a trader, not an investor. Traders don't trade on fundamentals, they trade on the beliefs of other investors. His bet isn't that AOL is a great stock, but that other people think it's a great stock. It's possible to make a killing on a bubble stock if you time it right. That may be what Soros is doing. I came too late to do that with AOL and admittedly wouldn't have spotted this particular bubble.
Whether I can time the bursting of the bubble is another challenge. I'll be sure to let you know when I short, so that you can rub it in if I'm wrong.
g'luck,
rhet0ric |
