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Strategies & Market Trends : Investment in Russia and Eastern Europe
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To: Jim Fraser who wrote (5)3/13/1998 3:12:00 PM
From: Real Man  Read Replies (1) of 1301
 
Short-term impact, I believe, the effect will be
dramatic - the stock market might lose 30% or more.
Basically, the hot money will leave the
market. Then there will be intensive fight for the presidential
post. Communists might get a chance. However, the democratic
candidate is likely to get all the Western (and domestic) campaign
support. Besides, the majority does not want return of communism, so
the democratic president is likely to get more votes. One
has to consider a third possibility of a general (Lebed'),
however. Russia has a long history of sustaining their leaders in
half-dead, half-alive condition. I forgot how long Brezhnev was
in such a condition. 5 years? 10 years? As long as Yeltsin is alive,
its people around him who matter. From all the sentiment I hear from
inside Russia, return to communism is extremely unlikely at this
point. -Vi
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