Bill, thanks. First, "pseudo" means I am not a real biologist.
I have the following sales projections handy for Synagis.
Morgan Stanley sees $52.5 mill in 98, 180 in 99, 270 2000, 345 in 2001, $390 mill in 2002, and $420 in 2003 (this from a report dated January 9, 1998. It assumes cost per patient of $5,000, a 25% royalty in Europe; for the year 2000, for example, it projects 54,000 patients in the US, and 13,000 in Europe. The revenue numbers above include only US sales. For the year 2003 total gross sales would be 420+150 or $560 mill)
Merrill Lynch (ML) projects $435 mill sales in the US alone in the year 2002 (report dated February 9, 1998). They see US sales of $229 mill in 1999. ML also confirms your statement on supply constraints of RespiGam, and how introduction of Synagis will solve this. (besides largely expanding the market).
Goldman Sachs (GS) appears more conservative with 99 US sales projections of $109.5 for Synagis. The market *potential* is estimated at $400 mill by GS.
PB |
