NEWS.COM article "Panel: Networks getting crowded"
[Includes comments by Jeanette Symons, founder and chief technical officer of Ascend Communications at Spring Internet World]
By Alex Lash
Staff Writer, CNET NEWS.COM
March 13, 1998, 11:35 a.m. PT
URL: news.com
LOS ANGELES--The invasion of "silicon cockroaches" is threatening to overwhelm our computer
networks, an executive said at a lively Internet World panel discussion here today.
Panelists Alan Taffel, UUNet's vice president of marketing and business development; Jeanette
Symons, founder and chief technical officer of Ascend Communications; and Netcom chairman
David Garrison addressed issues of network bandwidth and performance in the coming years.
Taffel kicked off the 45-minute discussion with warnings about the proliferation of computer
chips--"silicon cockroaches"--and their insatiable demands for network capacity.
"Faxes, cell phones, PCs with modems--they now drive and eat bandwidth, and they're hungry and
greedy," Taffel said. The explosion of data-based communications over networks has dramatically
sped up Internet growth, he added.
"Three years ago, we were proud that the Internet doubled every year," Taffel said. "Now it
doubles every three to six months."
That enormous growth has network service and equipment providers scrambling to keep up and
reacting to the latest developments in content--video service, for example--that further increase
bandwidth needs.
"We sit back, shaking in nervousness, waiting to see what new applications are coming out to
break the network," said Ascend's Symons, with a laugh. Ascend makes modems and other
hardware to access and build the network infrastructure.
Video was No. 1 on Netcom chairman Garrison's list of "wild cards" certain to affect future
network performance. "It will have an enormous whipsaw effect," he said.
That uncertainty is compounded by the fact that video services--from video phones in the 1960s to
movies-on-demand in the 1980s--have gone bust, the panel noted. The speakers were equally
wary of the promise of cable modems and the high-bandwidth services they promise.
Unfortunately, there were no representatives from that industry to defend themselves. (See related
story)
Another trend that is hard to predict but certain to have an effect is Internet telephone service,
which is beginning to offer low-cost long distance calls with promises of high quality.
Garrison also noted that the "cockroach" problem won't go away. Network companies need to
keep a close eye on future chip designs and how such devices use bandwidth. Another variable is
the tradeoff between transporting and storing data. Regional providers are mulling over the
possibility of keeping large caches of data on local servers to minimize long distance network
traffic, Garrison said.
"That's a lot like what Yahoo is doing now with its various regional services," noted panel
moderator Jack Powers, vice president of conferences for Mecklermedia.
As with most industry discussions these days, the panelists touched upon government regulation.
UU Net's Taffel noted that IP-network telephone calls are so cheap in part because there aren't
any access fees, but that could change. (At a recent high-tech investment gathering in San
Francisco, however, President Clinton pledged to support legislation that would ban Internet
taxation for six years.)
Sending sound and video over the Internet is more likely to catch on in places where traditional
access to those services is hard to find or expensive, said Ascend's Symons.
Because of the dizzying array of service possibilities--local or national ISPs offering phone services,
video, or Internet guides in various combinations--Garrison scoffed at the idea of a shakeout in the
ISP market.
"That's hogwash," he said. "In a few years, there will be twice the number there is today, but they'll
become more specialized" according to vertical interest groups, geographical location, or levels of
user expertise.
One future trend the panelists all envisioned was higher costs to end users as more services are
added to the Internet.
"Eventually, somebody will pay for bandwidth," said Symons. "Somebody's installing equipment,
somebody's putting in fiber...you'll have to pay somebody."
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