Nadine, I disagree totally. The demand for business computers has slowed because few businesses do not have one that meets their needs. And the new stuff just doesn't do much. We have already seen how the market ignored P2 and Pro until the prices became competitive and the same thing will happen with any new operating system that does as little new or better as Win 98 and No Tasks 5.0. MSFT can no longer play any tune and get everyone to dance. Y2K, if nothing else, will prevent spending for spending's sake, as has been the case so often for the pc related industry. And the fact that these new products, like the new products before them, simply do not fulfill their promises. They don't increase productivity and even the slowest businessman is now becoming aware of that. In fact, something over 60 pct. of business boxes are still 486s. Bulls look on that as an opportunity, but the truth is, it is a condemnation. If the smart people can make profits with cheaper machines, after a while MSFT and the others run out of the dumb folks who upgrade just to upgrade.
One of the reasons I made so much money on my Picturetel puts was that I was among the first who realized that video conferencing is the worst productivity killer ever produced. When people are watching or listening at a video conference, nothing is being done 95 pct. of the time.
Of course sales will continue. Heck, pc sales could even be up a little bit year over year. But not enough to generate enough profit to sustain these silly valuation levels. At least not until the tech sector makes something useful and useable in an affordable package. Otherwise, it will be a few tech nerds, such as most of us, buying new crapola, while smarter business folks spend their money on stuff that pays off, like scam stock buybacks. -g- MB |
