Nadine:
I've been personally sampling and testing voice dictation systems now for over three years. The best of them work....barely....and only if you speak very slowly and very clearly. Don't catch a cold. The best one that I've tried still drove me back to the darned keyboard, and I'm the slowest, two-fingered typer that you have ever seen. I agree, that once they work reasonably effectively, that they might be a "killer app". Incidentally, my wife and my kids, who all type effortlessly, think that it will never touch the keyboard for speed. I disagree (g). I hate the keyboard.
Windows 98 is not going to drive any kind of real buying spree, because it doesn't offer anything new or of consequential value, and the users know it. This will be the first time that "Big Bill's" MSFT won't reap a big return for their efforts. The attitude in the field is "Ho-hum...yawn"
My contacts in the business sector tell a different tale. They say that they can't see any reason to spend over $1,000 for a PC that will perform only standard business tasks. They also have no reason to change what they've now got....and finally got working.
Video Conferencing has in fact been peripherally available for years, but never caught on. Admittedly it hasn't been cheap, but why would anybody want it?....to stare at a slow scan ( or even fast scan) picture of the person you are talking to?
I'm a dedicated tech freak, and love techie toys, but I wouldn't cross the road for video capability. Radio amateurs, of which I am one, have had it for years, but it is not terribly popular, even though it isn't expensive.
Like you, I believe that software applications provide the real driving force for hardware buying. Unfortunately, I can't see anything near term that will spur upgrading. Incidentally, the drop in PC prices from plus $2,000 to under $1,000 has only added 2 to 3 percentage points of household penetration. That is the best definition of "saturated market" that I can think of.
Every PC producer shrugged off concerns about an obvious saturation of the N. American markets as 1997 came to a close, citing "booming" Asian markets as the place where the big sales would be made in 1998 and beyond. PC sales into Asia will be crummy this year. Asia is buying bare necessities only. The industry is over-supplied, and demand has evaporated. Let the blood bath continue.
Best, Earlie |
