Jason,
I think you are correct in mentioning that a investment time-horizon is crucial in discussing any investment. Do check out the past postings, and you'll see that we talking about a very short time horizon here on the price weakening. All we are saying is that we are perceiving a changing business cycle for pcs, and that growth rates may slow down. The indications are already here: disk drive makers (Western, Seagate, Quantum) having problems with over capacity and low product pricing, Intel recently announced slower chip sales, then the Compaq announcement. You may view Dell as a superstar that can over come any slow down in the pc business cycle, and you may well be right.... only time will tell. You may want to trust explicitly when Dell said everything is OK, and that's fine, it's your perogative. My view is that Dell's pe ratio is way too high given the negative indications in the business environment, and while I think Dell is a great company in the long run, in the short run I see an opportunity to make some money (or lose some if I'm wrong) to sell short. There are no good guys, or bad guys. It is all fun and business. And there is no point debating with you on Dell. We can debate till the cows come home, and not change each others mind. Besides, the purpose of forums is not to win arguments, but rather to have an opportunity to render differing views, so that investors can have a balanced diet when making their personal investment decions. And I'm sure you know that no one can tell definitively what is going to happen to a stock price. The most we can do is take a view, plunk our money down, and see what happens.
D. |
