O Wise Wizard...So much of interest in your (Ref)post.and the like, that I have to respond..
You have really put a finger on it....there really is something strange going on with much of the semi industry.. Chip growth seems to be still ongoing, but it is getting more and more difficult for any SERIOUS money to be made. And it seems to be "backing uphill" into the semi eqt stocks...So I have left (most of my)LSI, VLSI, AMAT, and wondering about the next step back (VECO, LTXX, TER) where I have concentrated large bets.
To restate the obvious: We are in an economic BOOM in this country; productivity is growing sharply, mostly due to technological advances; and the use of CHIPs is becoming pervasive, in everything from telecom to home entertainment centers; more and more complex chips are being designed and rushed into production, etc..... SO...where are the profits?
It seems to get a bit wearying waiting for some incremental improvement in (miserable) margins...hoping for the next contract win (which improves the stock little or not at all)..and watching too much of my tech investment getting chipped away..
So what's the answer... I hate to be out of the semis, but have found it prudent to reduce certain aspects of the investment. Now concentrating in things such as your link suggested: AMAT, TER, DPMI..and especially DPMI.
Speaking of which...that was some REALLY good info on Photomask pricing.. Were you even remotely aware (as I was not) that single photomasks have gone from $2,750 to $4,500 over the past five years, and at .25u run about $21,000 apiece...or $47,000 at .18u (projected, I presume)?... And does that run us close to $100k each as we approach .13u? For info, and your possible comment, DPMI is taking over one of the Korean inhouse photomask operations...
biz.yahoo.com
Does that look better for the good old USA or what? :-)
TSO |
