RE: "Oil Industry Breakfast Forum" from AOL board
Thought the following would be of interest to all from O&G AOL board.
"This morning I sat along with a few hundred of my industry peers in a breakfast conference in Houston that is put on twice a year. The keynote speakers were - Goerge Boykin ww drilling mgr Amoco, James Day, pres/ceo NE, Gaspard, energy analyst, Hoagaland - pres/ceo Enron, and Tom Bates Pres. EVI and Peterson owner of Peterson drilling based in Midland.
Some key pts. from the group.
1. Oil prices will stay in the 12 - 15$ for this year. expect a strong rebound to 15 in July.
2. We are about to have a crisis within 2-4 yrs. in the electric generation bis. due to the lack of infrastructure investment, ie new power plants, which will spur increased gas use.
3.At the current time offshore gas prod. is being depleted at a rate of 37% per year, 21% land.
4. With all the drilling that has occurred in the GOM in the last 5 years, we are still today producing 1bcf LESS per day today thean in 1987.
5.There will still be a lot of consolidation in the service biz over the next few yers.
6. Independents will cut back drilling programs in 1998
7. Gas is the largest driver of drilling activity in the world today, more than oil due to the global increase in use in this fuel.
8. In 1987 the world had an overcapacity of oil production capabilities of 27%. Today it is 4%.
9. Low price and economic growth continue to grow demand. Gasoline consumption in the USA has increased by 300,000 bbls/day since Jan.
10. Expect offshore day rates to continue climbing. It is simply supply and demand and we do not have enough rigs.
11. Technology is a key driver that will allow drilling to cont. at healthy levels due to lower overal finding/lifting costs, ala horizontal, 3 & 4 D siesmic, subsea completions, etc, etc.
12. We have a real shortage of people in the indust
13 P/E numbers for oilfield service companies will be 20 this year vs. an average of 32 in 1997.
Overalll this was a great forum for info and that is the best that I can recall for now. The tone was still positive for our industry.
Lisa maybe you can send this to Bob Pisani with a voo-doo doll!!
Big Dog did you by any chance attend this breakfast?
Lois |
