Luc or anyone else, a few questions re oil prices and consolidation:
1) When do you think there will be an OPEC production cut?
2) Everything I have read indicates that the Venz are adamant about not cutting. Is your prediction of a production cut predicated on more pain for the Venz caused by even lower oil prices near term? If its not, why do you think there will be a production cut?
3) It seems too easy to just sit back and wait for an oil rally and then buy the drillers. What do you think the likelihood is that the drillers will start their move prior to oil rallying?
4) Do you see consolidation among the drillers? I have heard rumors as to takeovers of MDCO and BDI. The more obvious acquisition candidate in my opinion, however, would be Diamond Offshore. The Tischs are viewed as not being interested in building the business (as indicated by DO's decision to increase dividends as opposed to share buybacks. Also, the President recently resigned. Does anyone have any views as to whether they will put the company up for sale. Also, aside from takeover speculation, how do you rate this company vs. the other drillers (I know DO, along with RIG, is one of the two most concentrated deepwater drillers, but is it a better buy than RIG, NE, FLC, GLM, etc. at these levels?). (For what its worth, I am long most of the afforementioned names, but I haven't seen much discussion re DO on this board).
Thanks in advance for any comments received. |
