INDEX UPDATE
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Of course my short-term technicals are showing the bias to the downside for Monday, but I dont trust them for the time being.
But here are some mid/longer term analysis which I have done:
The NDX, which is a major index, is showing the possibility of a HEAD AND SHOULDER formation. If it does not exceed 1180 next week and settles around 1150, it will form the RIGHT SHOULDER. The next major supports for the H&S formation is around 1100 then 1060. I'm not saying that it will go there yet just that such movement would complete the HEAD and SHOULDER formation. As for timing the right shoulder would be completed by of next week. This would also mean that it would head to the 1100 range before heading back up. If we see a break above 1180 to the upside it would negate this H&S formation. Something to watch.
DOW - Here are the dates and levels(closing prices) of the last peaks:
FEB 3 - 8160
FEB 18 - 8451
MAR 3 - 8585
MAR 11 - 8675
The upswings are getting smaller and the the time period between peaks are getting shorter. This could be another signal that we are topping out. I am also getting hints of seeing a ROUNDING TOP formation, but needs further confirmation. On the weekly charts the DOW also had a DOJI or small SPINNING TOP, which is a reversal signal itself, but also came after a HAMMER last week.
From what I saw, after all the charts were updates the upside movement should be limited and still holding to 8888 >>gggggggg<, as the top. in mid-April, and there are some hints that we may not get that high.
The short-term technicals have changed slightly, and it is no longer saying that MON/TUE are up, but that the bias changed to the downside. I had previously indicated that the overall market should be up yesterday since the NAZ still had more upside room. The NAZ was actually up strongly intraday, but the DOW was weak and it pulled the NAZ down off of its highs. The CANDLESTICKS for the NAZ and most of its indexes was an INVERTED HAMMER, which is a normal reversal signal, but this is not a normal market. Again the short-term technicals are showing downside bias - should I start believing them now??? gggggggg
Seeya |
