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Politics : Ask Michael Burke

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To: Fab Tech who wrote (26697)	3/14/1998 5:50:00 PM
From: Knighty Tin	Read Replies (1) of 132070

Fabio, I think the worst quarter will be third quarter. Yes, the stocks usually go down 1st quarter as the dealers work off their inventories from Xmas exuberance, but it is third quarter when demand usually falls off a cliff. This year will be worse than previous years, because recoveries will be tepid, at best. The stocks will catch up to the fundamentals. Right now the bulls think the tech stocks are heading down for another bounce on the trampoline. They don't really realize that the party is over. Once that sets in, I expect it to spill over into non-tech stocks. After all, phony accounting for tech stocks is the only reason we have had good GDP growth and a hiccup in the rate, though still disastrously lousy, of productivity growth. Once it is seen that these things were mirages, there might be a bit of focus on the savings rate hitting all time low and the trade deficit booming. Then the fit will hit the shan. MB

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