Duane, << core dump on new oxide processes >>
Please understand I've speculated on the new oxide processes by
Lucent. Having been out of the industry for only a short couple
years, puts me at a disadvantage to leading edge techniques. My
assumptions were based on my understanding of various roadblocks
we were challenged with in the DSP world. DRAMS are far more leading
edge, and as I've never been connected to this technology, I know
little. I believe they use what are called 'trench capacitors', and
much design is vertical rather than horizontal in nature, giving this
process many advantages for building smaller geometries.
The connection made to photomask is not one of a technical nature,
but a personal opinion of the way I see wallstreet's relationship
between semis and semi suppliers. With one good earning surprise and
forward looking CC from DPMI, they're off to the races. They themselves stated their new process wouldn't be production ready
until 2001. As for current processes, mask volume will be dependant
on release of new designs. Once a mask set is made for a particular
design, it's done. Like if you buy a new pan to fry eggs, you keep
frying eggs. No new pan is needed.
The entire semi industry, at least major players like SGS-Thompson,
TI, National, and Intel have claimed to tighten capital expenditures
in preparation for a tight quarter. I don't expect this would fold into release of new designs, critical to tomorrows revenues, but do
expect wallstreet to put photomask into a generic category of semi
supplier companies. When are earnings for DPMI? It's one semi supplier
that could surprise wallstreet. If they're growth seems to trend
up on a consistant basis, I would expect earning to follow. I haven't
really followed up on their fundamentals. I've personally been trying
to become cash heavy, gambling on a weak tech sector quarter, and
placing the money based on CC forward looking comments. DPMI, TXN,
INTC, IBM ,and AMAT are on my buy list for semi and semi companies, none of which I currently hold. TXN earnings will be a major influence to the above in my humble opinion. I'll pick up only one semi and one supplier. Already they all look good to me, but I'm holding out for more downside. Just a gut feeling. Rumor mill says
TXN may come in flat. To me this would be a strong positive for all
the above and lead me to INTC or IBM. If TXN comes up short, I expect
a sharp drop, and would jump on TXN.
A friend of mine at IBM fishkill keeps talking like IBM leading
edge is like star trek!. He's a PHD that characterizes new products,
but I never challenge my friends from the industries for details.
Always been too ethical and don't want to compromise our relationships
against their proprietary obligations. My buddy from fishkill and
another from TI, spent a week backpacking MT. Blanca, stopped up
here in Bailey, 45 mile southwest of Denver on hwy 285 to say hello,
before returning to Dallas. Fishkill friend will fly DFW to New York.
They should be near Amarillo, Tx, by now. Good investing, and in a
good stock IMHO. Hope to be here soon.
Larry
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