TTOSBT is correct in saying that IBM does not have things that Novell has. For one thing a Server Operating System (SOS) that will make it in the market. IBM's OS/2 Warp has finally become a technically good SOS compared with NT (for those non-techies NT is a derivative of OS/2), but, its too late for OS/2 in the industry. Only the the large financial institutions are still using OS/2 and even that support is turning over to NT or AIX when it comes to Application servers and NT or NetWare for Network operating systems.
The question is, How long will IBM keep OS/2 on life support until they finally pull the plug on it and admit defeat? Politically they can't do it in the short run - too many major corp. clients (i.e. Banks) that would roast them if they did. But eventually OS/2 will be shelved (IMO) because its costing IBM millions of dollars in development and support to maintain this dying product.
So how would IBM shelve OS/2. Well I think you are already seeing their plan beginning to take shape. IBM just recently (2-3 weeks ago) made big announcements that their server hardware will be compliant and actually loaded with NT. Their software will be more and more tied to running on NT or AIX or OS/390. They will likely be gently pushing their large corp. clients to NT or AIX or OS/390. Then, when they feel their critical clients have let go of OS/2, they will drop development effort and slowly reduce technical support.
The next problem, IBM would now not have a viable intel platform of their own. I don't think IBM would consider that acceptable - too much risk that an external entity could hold their application software hostage. They would need something that has a chance to still compete in the marketplace. In walks NetWare 5.
NetWare 5 is almost a marriage made in heaven for IBM! Why? Listen.
1) NetWare still has a huge following and marketshare and loyal clients, therefore they would be buying into an instant market leading SOS.
2) IBM is a founding member of the "Pure-Java" committee. So is Novell and NetWare 5 will have a "Pure-Java" JVM (Java Virtual Machine) built into it. This is something NT will not be following.
3) IBM is the biggest advocate of CORBA and all their application development tools and platforms already have been and will be CORBA compliant. NetWare 5 will be CORBA compliant when released.
Then there is all the other initiatives and products that Novell has been involved with or developed that would help IBM enormously.
1) NetWare for SAA (Host access software) that is already completely developed and supported by IBM. Novell actually passes support calls directly to IBM support people.
2) Intel based network infrastructures like BorderManager, ManageWise, NetWare Connect, etc.
3) And the BIGGEST GEM of all - NDS. Currently the leading Directory Services product in the industry. IBM has already announced and is developing their ties to NDS for AIX and MVS so that their platforms can be NDS integrated. IBM would be in heaven to grab this enterprise product and tie all their solutions to it. Say good-bye Active Directory.
The only conflict with IBM and Novell would be Notes and GroupWise. But even that would be a pleasant problem for IBM. Currently industry statistics have stated the Notes has the Number 1 position in marketshare followed by GroupWise and then MS Exchange in third. If IBM got GroupWise they would get a commanding messaging marketshare lead on Exchange! Since GroupWise has some powerful features in it (like full NDS integration and very open client platform support) IBM could slowly develop a merged product in the long run between Notes and GroupWise.
What does Novell and their products get. It obvious, Marketing Clout! If IBM began pushing Novell's products, Microsoft would be literally shaking in their boots. Because a superior set of technologies to NT would be sold by a company that has a strangle hold on the Fortune 1000 accounts. I would predict that if IBM bought Novell, Microsoft's stock price would plummet! The end of the Microsoft dynasty would begin.
So, should this merger happen? I truly believe it should. Will it ever happen? Your guess is as good as mine but all my analysis of the situation says it makes clear sense. It almost looks like IBM is preparing for it. Remember that IBM is only supporting NT now because it currently is the Intel application development platform of choice and they cannot ignore it but we will have to see what IBM will do when NetWare 5 comes out.
As for a previous comment from someone that "when IBM's mainframe business business disappears...". Sorry folks, that prediction has been made for a few years now and its not going to happen. The mainframe market will be there for the foreseeable future. IBM is evolving their mainframe platform to become the top solution of the scaleable ladder for the newest technologies in the industry. For example, try to beat a S/390 as a web server. There are too many very very large scale applications out there that an Intel platform and related software cannot even dream of converting.
Hope my thoughts mean something to the board conversation.
ToySoldier |
