To all: Questions and observations
According to the document Jim posted earlier (Novell factbook via Australia):
-Novell is a part of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 indices.
Is this true? I thought Novell was pulled off the S&P 500 some time ago and I am not sure about the Nasdaq 100.
-Why Director Ian Wilson resigned from the Board?
-Thoughts on Director Hans-Werner Hector?
Being a cofounder of SAP he may be the only director (other than Eric of course) who may have a clue about the industry and the Internet.
-The custorer list included
Ford: From what I hear I believe Ford is moving to NT
State of Michigan: From what I hear, the State is commited to Novell products and in fact has made large purchases of Border Manager and Groupwise products.
-Tolonen resignation
IMHO, this is an excellent development. Tolonen never learned how to properly communicate and manage expectations of the investment community. He always seemed to miss projections by miles. I believe he was in way over his head coming from Excelan, probably did his share in some channel stuffing, even allowed a portion of the 1 billion cash to be invested in some market timing schemes (God help us!). Anyway his numbers never were perceived as good numbers. He had no credibility at all. This should have happened when Eric came aboard, I have no idea why it took so long. Another top management piece will soon be in place who has nothing to do with the backward lethargic clueless top management that had ruled Novell since early nineties.
-Lawsuit
Again IMHO I believe this is not a major event but a nuissance(sp?). On the contrary I believe it could act as a catalyst for major changes in the top management and board of Directors (Tolonen being the first). These alleged accusations concerned a prior period and has NOTHING to do with the new Novell and the company going forward (other than some directors which could act as a way of being humiliated and resigning --Young probably wouldn't do it but who knows? Maybe he still has some conscience left). Will it lead to restatement of financials? I doubt it. If it does will the stock price dive? I doubt it. If it does I will probably buy some more to get my shares up to a round number. That lawyer will probably settle and go get another Ferrari and the shareholders who decided to enter the class action would end up with pennies on the dollar.
So where does that leave us?
According to the same document mentioned earlier:
"New network services software and new Internet related server operating system products from Novell are targeted to respond to customer needs for:
Expanding the use of Internet technologies in business networks;
Evolution to a client / services computing model that relies on standards-based network services to support the delivery of information from multiple servers running different operating systems, to traditional PCS and new network computers;
Upgrades from Novell's installed base of NetWare 3 file and print sharing networks to Internet related servers."
The key words above is "from multiple servers running different operating systems". From what I hear the vast majority of networks today is a mix of a whole range of hardware and networking operating systems. Companies just want them to work and won't just junk such major expenditures overnight. Novell seems to be focusing on exploiting this need (NDS for NT...) and IMHO seems to be an excellent strategy.
"Between 1996 and 2000, IDC has projected Novell server operating systems growth at a compound rate of 8 percent. IDC also estimated that in 1996, the installed base of servers worldwide was approximately 8 million units. IDC projects this population will grow to 17 million by the year 2000."
The networking market is there growing and I believe Novell has an excellent chance of being the leader again by the year 2000. Netware 5 hopefully will be the next good step...
Lastly, their technology, cash, real estate, customer base, CNE army, Schmidt makes Novell a good (and still somewhat speculative) value and the ultimate buyout target <g>
So to end my simplistic analysis....I couldn't care less what happens tomorrow, next week,month,or year or two. To me what matters is what happens by the year 2000 (if we ever get there....IBM?)
In the meantime I would like to thank all of the posters here and especially the old timers. It has been an incredible learning experience participating here.
Okay now back to NCAA....watching my neighbors Western Michigan and Detroit.
Sincerely
George |
