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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?

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To: ToySoldier who wrote (21118)3/15/1998 4:01:00 PM
From: Don Earl  Read Replies (2) of 42771
 
Hi Toy Soldier,

Part of what has gotten me looking more closely at IMB as serious competition in the NT vs NetWare debate was a recent IBM TV ad for small business solutions. I don't know enough about OS2 to make intelligent comments on the product but I'll take your word for it being a technically sound product. It agrees with anecdotal evidence I've run across elsewhere. Looking at IBMs last quarterly report awhile back, one of the things that stuck in my mind was the growth in their networking products. I'll politely disagree with your contention that OS2 is a dead product on the verge of being shelved. It looks more to me like something that is about to be pushed into the middle of the vacuum between Microsoft and Novell.

On one hand you have Novell with good products getting stomped flat by NT, with years of bad press on internal problems and shrinking market share. On the other hand you have Microsoft with products that just barely work and increasing concern about their predatory business practices. In walks IBM with a solid solution, plenty of marketing clout and no bad press. All of a sudden customers don't have to be torn between big and better. They can have both.

I understand the reasoning behind an IBM buy out. I took some nice profits from the last rumor when it moved from 7 to 10. The bottom line is that IBM doesn't want it. They could have bought it out of petty cash years ago if they did. They can market OS2 for considerably less that it would cost them to buy Novell. I also suspect that anti trust laws would make a buy out a bit of a tough sell.

Novell lost the war when they conceded their small business segment to NT. Little businesses grow into bigger businesses and lots of little sales add up to a lot of money.

I couldn't believe my eyes when I read the article that was posted that mentioned NetWare 6. They haven't gotten 5.0 out the door and they are already telling people that someday they will have something better. Schmidt seems to be doing an about face on Java now, evidently they can't get it to work right.

I believe Novell has good products. That's never been an issue as far as I'm concerned. I also believe Novell will be around in some form or another for a long time. There will probably also be small bright spots along the way when they release new upgrades into the channel. As far as a turn around prospect with growth potential, I really don't see it. There are too many axes hanging over their heads that haven't started to fall yet. It's a marketing issue and the only company I see making perfect moves with perfect timing is IBM.

Regards,

Don
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