what are your feelings about NN getting to 33 and breaking through it next week?
There are several factors favoring NN's continuing up this week and beyond.
Bandwidth has become a mantra in the networking industry as has convergence of voice and data. ATM is the backbone of choice.
Statistics show the strength of this market (JP Morgan, March 1998):
ATM (backbone) market is estimated to be $1.18 billion in 1998 and will grow 56.8%, with NN capturing 32%, CSCO 22%, NT 11%, and ASND 8%.
ATM (access) market is estimated to be $231 million in 1998 and will grow 89.3%, with YURI capturing 28%, COMS 12%, NetEdge 10%, and ADC 10%.
These figures don't account for the fact Siemens/NN just completed the acquisition of RADNet whose primary expertise is ATM access switches:
newbridge.com
<<<The acquisition represents a significant step in the advancement of the industry-leading Siemens / Newbridge MainStreetXpress product line by adding important ATM access switches and provides the Siemens and Newbridge alliance with access to the R&D capability, entrepreneurial energy and innovation found in Israel, recognized as one of the fastest growing technology centers in the world.>>>
newbridge.com
<<<"The joint acquisition of RADNET with Siemens, which we announced earlier this week, strengthens our ability to address the enterprise customers' requirements for broadband network access. This will further solidify our position as one of the premier suppliers in the WAN market for both corporate and carrier customers. We will continue to enhance this position by deepening and strengthening our relationships with other industry leaders and by focusing the Company's resources to address the robust demand for our broadband networking solutions." >>>
White paper: rad.com
<<< The better strategy is to implement a high-speed ATM backbone and offer lower speed Frame Relay services over it. Payback begins immediately and the PTO has an upward migration path already in place.. . .
Reaching the Finish Line -- Frame Relay-ATM Interworking Pays Off
The United States' lead in mass deployment of broadband data/voice services can be overcome relatively quickly if European PTOs and alternative service providers invest in ATM backbone switches and ATM edge concentrators to support Frame Relay and ATM services. By capitalizing on their existing ISDN infrastructure as the Local Loop of choice together with cash generated by new Frame Relay services, PTOs will have ready funds to quickly recover the outlay in ATM backbone and access equipment. With revenues generated by these new services and increased ISDN traffic, PTOs will be well positioned to market and deploy end-to-end ATM access in time to meet and/or anticipate actual user demands. Ultimately, the issue of implementing Frame Relay and/or ATM services over an ATM backbone is neither technological nor financial but political -- an issue that competition will resolve sooner rather than later. >>>
rad.com
[White paper on QoS for ATM]
<<<This paper reviews the challenges that face carriers as they roll out ATM services. It examines the quality-of-service metrics that ATM technology has placed at the carriers' disposal and discusses how these metrics can best be implemented to meet the carrier's objectives and satisfy those of the customer as well.>>>
I believe these products were integrated into MainStreetXpress 36140/36144:
newbridge.com
Please correct me if I'm wrong.
newbridge.com
newbridge.com
I've thrown out a lot of scattered information, but I believe if you put it together you'll see NN has some distinct advantages. By capturing the lead in the ATM backbone market and adding ATM access switches through the purchase of RADNet, I believe they have an end-to-end solution that can compete with anything on the market today. And we haven't even begun to discuss the 36190.
newbridge.com
The JPMorgan report says growth in the "Layer3 Switches/Terabit Router" market will be 343.5% in 1998, based on an estimated market of $1.1 billion. [5 yr CAGR = 123%] No market share figures available.
All these stats have to do with fundamentals.
As for Wall Street and short term price appreciation, I'm guessing CeBIT, March 19 to 25, will generate enough press to raise the entire sector.
Then again, Saddam could sneeze, Yeltsin croak, or Greenspan use the wrong words and the entire market convulse.
I prefer focusing on fundamentals.
Later --
Pat |
