INDEX UPDATE
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Here is an interesting tidbit concerning the interest rates.
I took a careful look at the charts on the TYX; since Jan the
HIGHS are getting higher and the LOWS are also getting higher, so for now the trend is clearly to the upside.
Here are the previous valleys/lows:
1) JAN 12 - 5.662%
2) FEB 18 - 5.777%
3) MAR 12 - 5.86%(low point so far & needs further confirmation)
As for the HIGHS/PEAKS, there is a similar pattern with gains of approximately .1% from the previous peak, with the last peak occuring
on Mar 5 at 6.163%.
For the short/mid-term, the trend is in a very clear trading channel to the upside.
If this pattern continues, technically, it is showing a strong projection that the interest rates could be around 6.15%,or higher, by the second week of April. I have heard in the past that once the interest rates crosses 6% and approaches 6.2%, the market should start to get nervous.
Some explained to me that the 3 main things which motivates a market are EARNINGS, LIQUIDITY, INTEREST RATES. For this quarter earnings have definitely come down. Liquidity is still strong, but will that continue after mid-APRIL, with the tax deadline for IRA contributions.
And last is interest rates, which on a technical basis only is showing a very clear short/mid-term trend to the upside into the area where many feel nervousness could start.
I have heard over and over on CNBC that the interest rates will go and stay lower in the mid 5% range, with some saying 5.4%. I am not a fundamentalist, so I cannot discuss such based on fundamentals, but based on the technicals it is definitely showing that we are in a very clear uptrend, at least for the short/mid term.
On just a technical basis, there are many technical signs, and some very strong, that mid-April will be technically very weak period for the market and a prime period for a pullback. How much of a pullback - well stay tuned. >>> gggggggggggggg <<<<
Seeya |
