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Politics : Ask Michael Burke

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To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (26719)3/16/1998 12:00:00 PM
From: Mike M2  Read Replies (1) of 132070
 
Nadine, while your criticisms of the bears for being early may seem to be quite valid at the moment it is predicated on the assumption that the market will accommodate those who wish to leave the bubble with their profits intact. Markets are asymmetrical, this "liquidity driven" market is fueled by a decline in liquidity preference. Look back to Oct 97 any attempt to remove significant( I am unable to quantify) amounts of money out of the bubble will hammer valuations. I see this market as a confidence game, a ponzi scheme, musical chairs. Look at a chart of any previous boom and you will see the market takes no prisoners once the downside begins in earnest. I say sell now. I will say the same at Dow 10000 by mid year. As Joe Kennedy said " only a fool holds out for top dollar" J Paul Getty said "sell what others are buying and buy what others are selling- this is not some catching cliche it is the very essence of successful investing" his son Gordon learned that lesson well. In case you have any doubts I am a bear and quite happy about it. I don't need a crystal ball to predict the future I have history as my guide.Pete I hope you enjoy this note-g- Mike
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