TSO, the Mike Doyle crystal ball for the next five years of "best bets" says wireless communications in general, and in particular, Qualcomm (which has been hammered and with which I am comfortable in the 40's, i.e., at current levels) and Loral Space and Communications (which has just taken a spurt and needs to cool off a bit to enter, IMO).
I like satellites because of huge barrier to entry: in addition to the little problem of building and launching the birds. you also have to get the celestial real estate rights to the orbital slots which are very limited and tough to come by. LOR's CEO, Bernard Schwartz, is in a Warren Buffett class as far as I'm concerned. Worth investigating.
I know you already know the Q story--just one facet to bring to your attention. Data relative to voice communications is expected to cross-over within three years--at that point telecom networks will be transmitting more data than voice. CDMA optimizes data transmission with an efficiency that GSM cannot match and CDMA minimizes power requirements which is critical to satellite transmissions.
Briefly, CDMA permits variable power on/off: when the network is under heavy load, it kicks up the volume; when the reverse is true, it turns it down. GSM must operate at full power ALL THE TIME regardless of load. In one of the more fascinating recent announcements to come down the pike, Motorola will be redesigning the second generation of birds for Iridium to permit a hybrid CDMA/GSM combo. This is as near as you will ever get to MOT throwing in the towel, and admitting they goofed with their selection of a communication standard for Iridium.
Thus, if you buy off on the "wireless" theme and if you buy off on the "satellite" theme, QCOM and LOR are one hell of a one-two punch combo. (I would also have thrown in Globalstar, GSTRF, but that little guy is already in orbit and its current price is just too frothy.)
With apologies to DPMI board for off-topic rant. Mike Doyle |
