Dear gaohong,
How many shares have been bought from the run $10-$17? How many of these are new, small investors buying on the hype and hope of the "contracts on the desk"? What tolerance do these people have for loss or downturn? Where are the stops set for most of these shares? I know several hopeful longs that bought from $10-$14 (wish I had at $10 -- I'd cash part in and set a stop at $15). All have stops set $2-$3 above where they purchased. Do you think this is common for at least a couple of million shares? A slide to $15 might set off stops, slide to $14, more stops, $13, more stops, etc. to at least $10. If breaks below $10 again and no BIG news or contracts, I think the fat lady sings at that point. When is that point? I think by the end of this week could be it???
What do you think? (Even if your scenario is correct, I believe that a lot of the buying has been small investors hoping for a quick squeeze buck -- heck, I considered it myself, but after polling many others, I could not bring myself to do it).
I remain,
SOROS |
