Dear John - I think WS is hedging the bet. Since the CFO has stated that this Q, like so many Qs of this time of the year, is likely to be backend loaded, people simply make the worst case scenario, like Messr Lindsay before his departure from DMG. Upgrading a co after a +ve surprise looks better [for the ANALists] then to downgrade it after a -ve one. So, if in case a deal or two cannot be closed for the Q, these ANALists can then brag about the *foresight*. However, my take based on the recent stk action is a concerted effort to squeeze the living hell out of the long. Imagine if one has loaded up to the tilt with margin the last run-up and if one has still bullish on BAY, one has to unwind the position, bit by bit, to have a crushion against margin call, as it comes down. The vicious circle perpetuates when TA folks look at the char pattern and weigh in with their shorts. It is really a self-fulfillment prophecy without too much need of real news.
Of course, it is also possible someone knows something.
rgds Bosco
p.s. over the wkend, the local paper did mention Tucker Anthony has downgraded BAY. Personally, I don't really take upgrade/downgrade seriously unless there is substantive analysis to go along with it. |
