Darth,
The only position I changed from my previous posts was that the weak period prior to Mar expiration was pushed back from late last week to WED/THU, and that the pullback this week would not as large as I previously expected. I also previously indicated that the support area was around 8200, now I changed it to 8350-8400, for the 1st support area.
I do not think the big pullback will take place this week, but there should be some sort of a dip with 8400 as the main support. As for the top before the first strong pullback, previously I had joked at 8888, but now it looks reasonable. I feel that the first chance for the big pullback will be around mid-April. If earnings come in better than expected then I will increase my top to 9000-9100 with the big/huge pullback being postponed to MAY. As for the downside of the big pullback, I think that we could get as low as the mid 7000's, with the first strong support at 8100.
So yes, I do feel that we will have a big pullback soon. From my last index update, the technicals indicated that the interest rates could get to the 6.15+% range by mid-April, and if it did get to that level the markeet will be nervous.
The 2 main issues keeping the market up is liquidity and interest rates. I am guessing that liquidity will slow down in mid-April when the IRA contribution deadline is over.
Strong negativity for the market is pointing to mid-April. The pullback this week may not be that strong.
On the other hand many are saying that the big pullback could start about now as it did last year.
Seeya |
