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Technology Stocks : DELL Bear Thread

DELL 133.78

-0.1%

Nov 14 9:30 AM EST

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To: Jason W. France who wrote (184)	3/16/1998 5:38:00 PM
From: rudedog	Read Replies (1) of 2578

You can go at it backwards from dell's share against cpq, since cpq does break out numbers. If we use my IDC number of 5.8% for Dell and 35% for CPQ we get 1/6 the share. Using these numbers, CPQ's 35% represented about $9B in sales, so Dell's 5.8 would be about 1.5B which I think is too low. However, your IDC number for Dell of 18% share (which I think was just for 3rd quarter 97, but may be an indication of future share) would put them at $4.5B in server sales, which I think is too high (this would put server percentage of sales higher than CPQ's, which seems unreasonable given their relatively recent entry into that business). If we split the difference we get $3B. My suspicion is that current annualized run rate might be something like $3B with server growth about 3 times Dell overall growth rate. this is just a back of the envelope swag...

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