Since we're looking to put some sort of value on Bay thought I'd post Vectorvest's analysis.They have a different EPS going forward than yours wizard and a much lower valuation also.Can't say I like what they have to say so let's hope they're wrong going forward.
e-mail to sales@vectorvest.com
vectorvest.com
Stock Analysis of Bay Networks
Thank you for requesting an analysis of Bay Networks from
VectorVest ProGraphics. The ticker symbol for Bay Networks is
BAY. BAY is traded on the New York Stock Exchange and options
are available on this stock.
PRICE: BAY closed on 13-Mar-1998 at $27.40 per share.
VALUE: BAY has a Value of $24.90 per share. Value is the
foundation of the VectorVest system.It is a measure of what a stock is
currently worth. Value is based upon earnings, earnings growth rate,
dividend payments, dividend growth rate, and financial performance.
Current interest and inflation rates also play an important role in the
computation of Value. When interest and/or inflation rates decrease,
Value goes up. When interest rates and inflation increase, Value goes
down. Sooner or later a stock's Price and Value always converge.
RV (Relative Value): BAY has an RV of 1.02. On a scale of 0.00
to 2.00, an RV of 1.02 is fair. RV reflects the long-term price
appreciation potential of the stock compared to an alternative
investment in AAA Corporate Bonds. Stocks with RV ratings above
1.00 have attractive upside potential. A stock will have an RV greater
than 1.00 when its Value is greater than Price, and its Relative Safety
(see below) and forecasted earnings growth rate are above average. In
some cases, however, a stock's RV will be above 1.00 even though its
Value is well below Price. This happens when a stock has an
exemplary record of financial performance and an above average
earnings growth rate. In this case, the stock is currently selling at a
premium, and the investor is banking on future earnings growth to drive
the stock's price higher. This information is very useful not only in
knowing whether or not a stock has favorable price appreciation
potential, but it also solves the riddle of whether to buy high growth,
high P/E, or low growth, low P/E stocks.
We believe that RV ratings above 1.00 are required to consistently
achieve above average capital gains in the stock market.
RS (Relative Safety): BAY has an RS rating of 1.01. On a scale of
0.00 to 2.00, an RS of 1.01 is fair. VectorVest looks at safety from the
viewpoint of an equity investor (one who is buying stock of a company)
rather than that of a purchaser of debt (one who is lending money to the
company). From this perspective, consistency of financial and operating
performance, stock price appreciation history, and price volatility are
the key factors used in the evaluation of Relative Safety (RS). Debt to
equity ratio, capitalization, sales volume, business longevity and other
factors are also considered, but to a lesser degree.
VectorVest favors steady, predictable performers. All stocks are rated
on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. A stock with an RS greater than 1.00 is
safer and more predictable than the average of all stocks. A stock with
an RS less than 1.00 is less predictable and riskier than the average
stock.
RT (Relative Timing): BAY has an RT rating of 0.91. On a scale
of 0.00 to 2.00, an RT of 0.91 is fair. RT is a fast, responsive,
short-term price trend indicator. It analyzes the direction, magnitude,
and dynamics of a stock's price behavior over the last 13 weeks; then
reflects and projects the short-term price performance of the stock.
Once a stock's Price has established a strong trend, it is expected to
continue that trend for the short-term. If the trend dissipates, RT will
gravitate towards 1.00. Should the price change dramatically, RT will
notice the crucial turning point. When warranted, it will explode from a
Price low and dive from a Price high.
All stocks are rated on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. If RT is above 1.00,the
stock's Price is in an uptrend. Below 1.00, the stock's Price is in a
downtrend.
VST-Vector (VST): BAY has a VST-Vector rating of 0.98. On a
scale of 0.00 to 2.00, an VST of 0.98 is fair. VST-Vector solves the
dilemma of balancing Value, Safety and Timing. Stocks with high RV
values often have low RS values, or stocks withlow RV and RS values
have high RT's. How can we find the stocks with the best combinations
of Value, Safety, and Timing?
The classic vector formula (square root of the sum of the squares)
handles this problem. It combines a set of forces into a single indicator
for ranking every stock in the VectorVest database. Stocks with the
highest VST-Vector have the best combinations of Value, Safety and
Timing. These are the ones to own for above average capital
application.
GRT (Growth Rate): BAY has a GRT of 14 % per year. This is
good. GRT stands for forecasted Earnings Growth Rate in percent per
year. GRT is updated each week for every stock. Watch GRT trends
very carefully. If the GRT trend is up, the stock's Price will likely rise. If
the GRT trend is down, the stock's Price will increase more slowly,
cease to increase, or subsequently fall.
Recommendation (REC): BAY has a Hold recommendation.
REC reflects the cumulative effect of all the VectorVest parameters
working together. These parameters are designed to help investors buy
safe, undervalued stocks which are rising in price, and to avoid or sell
risky, overvalued stocks which are falling in price.
VectorVest is tuned to give an "H" or "B" signal when a stock's price is
approximately 10% above a recent low, and an "S" signal when the
stock's price is approximately 10% below a recent high. High RV, RS
stocks are favored toward receiving "B" REC's, and sheltered from
receiving "S" RECs.
STOP-PRICE: BAY has a Stop-Price of$ 27.00 per share. This is
$0.40 or1.5% belowits current closing Price. VectorVest analyzes over
6,000 stocks each day for Value, Safety and Timing, and calculates a
Stop-Price for each stock. These Stop-Prices are based upon 13
week moving averages of closing prices, and are fine-tuned according
to each stock's fundamentals.
In the VectorVest system, a stock gets a "B" or an "H"
recommendation if its price is above its Stop-Price, and an "S"
recommendation if its price is below its Stop-Price.
DIV (Dividend): BAY does not pay a dividend. VectorVest focuses
on annual, regular, cash dividends indicated by the most recent
disbursement. Special distributions, one-time payments, stock
dividends, etc., generally are not included in Dividend (DIV).
DY (Dividend Yield): BAY has a DY of 0.0 percent. This is below
the current market average of 1.2 percent. DY equals 100 x
(DIV/PRICE), and is expressed as a percentage.
EY (Earnings Yield): BAY has an EY of 4.51%. This is below the
current market average of 4.92%. EY equals 100 x (EARNINGS PER
SHARE/PRICE), and is expressed as a percentage.
EPS (Earnings Per Share): BAY has an EPS of $1.24 per share.
EPS stands for leading 12 months Earnings Per Share. VectorVest
determines this forecast from a combination of recent earnings
performance and traditional fiscal and/or calendar year earnings
forecasts.
P/E (Price to Earnings Ratio): BAYhas a P/E ratio of 22.18. This
ratio is computed daily based upon Price and EPS. P/E = Price/EPS.
GPE (Growth to P/E Ratio): BAY has a GPE of 0.63. This ratio
suggests that This ratio suggests that BAY is overvalued. Growth to
P/E ratio is a popular measure of stockvaluation which compares
Earnings Growth Rate (GRT) to Price Earnings ratio (P/E). A stock is
considered to be undervalued when GPE isgreater than 1.00, and
vice-versa. VectorVest believes that RV is a much better indicator of
long-term value. The RV of 1.02 for BAY is fair.
DS (Dividend Safety): BAY has a DS of 0. On a scale of 0 to 99,
a DS of 0 is poor. DS is defined as the assurance that regular cash
dividends will be declared and paid at current or at higher rates for the
foreseeable future. Stocks with DS values above 50 on a scale of 0 to
99 areabove average in safety.
RISK (Dividend Risk): BAY does not pay a dividend. All stocks
in the VectorVest system that pay dividends are classified as having
Low, Medium or High Dividend Risk (RISK). Stocks with DS values
above 50 are above average in safety. These stocks are classified as
having LOW or MEDIUM RISK. Stocks with DS values below 50
are below average in safety and are classified as having HIGH Risk.
DG (Dividend Growth): BAY has a DG of 0 percent per year.
Dividend Growth is a subtle yet important indicator of a company's
historical financial performance and the board's current outlook on the
future use of funds.
YSG-VECTOR (Yield-Safety-Growth Vector): BAY has a
YSG-Vector of 0.00. On a scale of 0.00 to 2.00, an YSG-Vector
rating of 0.00 is very poor. VectorVest combines Dividend YIELD,
SAFETY and GROWTH into a single parameter. YSG-Vector allows
direct comparison of all dividend paying stocks. Stocks with the highest
YSG-Vector values have the best combinations of Dividend Yield,
Safety and Growth. These are the stocks to buy for above average
current income and long-term growth.
VOL(100)s: BAY traded 4667000 shares on 13-Mar-1998.
AVG VOL(100)s: BAY has an Average Volume of 3435874.
Average Volume is 50 day moving average of daily volume as
computed by VectorVest.
% VOL: BAY had a Volume change of 35.8% from its 50 day
moving average volume.
OPEN: BAY opened trading at $28.00 per share on 13-Mar-1998.
HIGH: BAY traded at a high of $28.50 per share on 13-Mar-1998.
LOW: BAY traded at a low of $27.00 per share on 13-Mar-1998.
CLOSE: BAY Closed trading at $27.40 per share on 13-Mar-1998.
% PRC: BAY showed a Price change of -1.4% from the prior day's
closing price.
INDUSTRY: BAY has been assigned to the Computer (Networks)
Group. VectorVest classifies stocks into over 190 Industry Groups and
50 Business Sectors.
BAY has about average safety with about average upside potential. It
reflects a stock which is likely to give about average,relatively
consistent returns over the long term.
The basic strategy of VectorVest is to buy low risk, high reward
stocks. We suggest that Prudent investors buy enough high Relative
Value, high Relative Safety stocks to keep the overall RV and RS
ratings of their portfolios above 1.00. As you do this, you'll find that
your risk will go down and your investment performance will improve.
Not a bad combination.
Regards,Dave |
