Barry, I am now ready, finally, to declare myself bearish again. The trigger, a second core stock (in for more than 2 years) has broken its lengthy upward trend. Last week, I finally bid good by to THQI, and today COO flew the coop. Neither are glamorous, but gosh, they have been very nice to me over the last two three years. Looked at them weekly and did not worry too much. Usually, when I get a string of stop losses executed I start and become really paranoid, particularly when that happens in a seemingly rising market. The actual beginning of the decline might be signaled tomorrow (as a result of the miserable MU results) or might even be delayed until the Nikkei cracks (probably an April fool day event if not earlier, as holders of stock are trying to get out of the door before each other and before the "support" campaign from the Postal Savings ends). Finally, the OEX put buying is abating (put/call ratio is not yet under 1.1 but getting there). Is a spike up possible? Sure, but I am getting very defensive again, and ready to run for the door any minute. I think that the first resistance will be the 8200 to 8250 zone, but I do not expect it to hold, if it does not there is not much holding it until 7600, where I think that a major battle might ensue.
We will probably hear reasons like the strength of the dollar (and in final analysis, if we go to 140 yen/dollar as I expect, this is not bad reasoning, since it will further erode competitiveness of US internationals), deflation and of course, the weight od evidence of bad earnings in technology (we already had warning from some of the majors and the lesser one could follow).
Just my mauled turnips' two cents, and they reserve the right to change their mind and change it often.
Zeev |
