MB:
Well tonight, we got a bit of revenge. You, SB, myself, and a bunch of the other "forever bears" all thought MU's cost of production exceeded its ASP by approximately $1.00 We were told how wrong we were. heh, heh, heh.
To this point in time, this "pre-announcement" period has been a disaster in the tech sector. It will get worse. For well over a year, the supply/demand curves have BOTH been going the wrong way, which of course is why we've been bears.....normally markets discount coming problems. It took me far too long to recognize that we were into a full-fledged tulip mania that wouldn't discount a problem if bitten by it..
Nadine, you are correct. I have been a bear during a period when the markets have continued to disregard what was obvious to those doing homework. Problem is, most diddle with charts rather than doing some old-fashioned research. Time will tell if you or most of the rest of those who chose to leave their money in close proximity to this vacuum cleaner will have much left when it lets go. I'll bet not.
Punch up IDC or Dataquest on your search engine and have a look at their comments for the last two years. Also note how they no longer talk about revenue growth, but now talk primarily about unit growth (and IT is heading south). It's worth recalling that the WORST revenue growth number that we saw in the past was PLUS 10%. When it got that "low", they totally trashed computer stocks......but of course that was when discounting still occurred. This year, it will be a negative number for a certainty. Perhaps that won't matter to this market for a little while yet, but it can't continue to ignore a continuous slide for forever.
Best, Earlie |
