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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services
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To: John Carson who wrote (14949)3/16/1998 11:04:00 PM
From: Thean  Read Replies (3) of 95453
 
John, there are times when TA is very helpful and there are times when TA is not very helpful. The current time tilts towards the not-very-helpful end of the spectrum. The key driver is crude price. Crude price is near 12 year low. If it breaks that and free falls to $10, there is no way our drillers will not tank together. Ron is betting that his stochastics will bail him out this time and he has certain elements on his side as well beside his stochastics - 1) GOM lease-sale; 2) a technical rebound in crude in order since oil is nearing a support level and 3) all drillers except MDCO and RIG are oversold short term. Therefore, I'm also in for short term trade but there is no sense of holding any driller longer than 2 weeks if they bounce 15% up from here and crude fundamentals is still weak. 15% profit is huge in a couple of weeks if this bounce materializes.

I looked at some charts for the offshore drillers and here are some numbers:

The ratio number, e.g. 1.22, is defined as high (price about 10 days ago) / low (today's close). Brackets are supports.

FLC 1.22 (25)
NE 1.20 (23)
ESV 1.22 (24)
RDC 1.21 (24)
GLM 1.15
RIG 1.13
DO 1.18 (39)
PDE 1.21
CDG 1.18
MDCO 1.12

My take:
1) FLC, NE, ESV, RDC all have very similar trading pattern and percentage move within the last 10 days. They also happen to be present in both deep and shallow water at GOM.

2) RIG is the latest stronghold. They have corrected the least. This makes sense as most of their contract will not be affected by 8 months weakness in crude price.

3) GLM comes in as a somewhat surprised second. Global is the big uncle and they have presence everywhere.

4) PDE also corrected like the first group but they have incredibly admirable offices.

5) MDCO continues to hold strong on its being a takeover potential.

6) The GOM lease sale tracks are east of Texas this time. I have the actual numbers but can't recall all. The big thing is most (~70%) of all the tracts up for bidding have water depth of greater than 400m. The big houses don't place their bids until the last day, which is tomorrow. According to the seismic data sale number this lease sale is responded by a lot of people and a good bidding is expected.

7) I'm buying NE and ESV for this GOM play. No FLC because of the nasty rumor. I would also include RDC if more cash is available but it still has no taker on its Gorillas.
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